ARCHIVED REPORTS
Overview
Planet
People
Security
Sustainability
20 Notable Reports
Directory of Reports
Editor’s Remarks
Risk Histories | Risk Overviews | Polycrisis | Sustainable Development Goals | Human Security for All | Other Normative Overviews
X-Risk: How Humanity Discovered Its Own Extinction
Thomas Moynihan. Urbanomic Media UK (dist. by MIT Press)
2020, 472p. Developed from a Univ of Oxford PhD and support from Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute. Bibliography of c.800 items, and a Timeline (pp1-5) from c.400 BC to the COVID pandemic in 2020.
Human Extinction: A History of the Science and Ethics of Annihilation
Emile P. Torres. Routledge
July 2023, 542p, $152. On when humans began to worry about their own extinction, how the debate has changed over time, and the ethics of our extinction.
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
Toby Ord (Oxford Univ). Hachette Books
2020, 468p. A survey of the past and future of X-risk, anthropogenic risks (nuclear weapons, climate change, environmental damage), natural risks (asteroids, super volcanoes), pandemics, AI, unrecoverable dystopias, and a “grand strategy for existential security.” Bibliography of c.600 items and 133 pages of Notes.
*The Era of Global Risk. Vol 1: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies
Edited by SJ Beard, Martin Rees, Catherine Richards, and Clarissa Rios Rojas (all Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, Univ of Cambridge). Open Book Publishers
Fall 2023, 333p. PDF and hardcopy. Ten chapters on a history of existential risk and those who worked to mitigate it (#1), theories of societal collapse (#2), X-risk and science governance (#3), global justice and global catastrophic risk (#4), enabling humanity to reduce X-risk (#5), natural global catastrophic risks (#6), ecological breakdown and human extinction (#7), biosecurity in the age of biotechnology (#8), a history of AI existential safety (#9), and military AI and global catastrophic risk (#10).]
*An Anthology of Global Risk
Edited by SJ Beard and Tom Hobson. Open Book Publishers
Sept 2024, 694p. (free PDF and $44.95 pb). Volume 2 of The Era of Global Risk from CSER. The 23 heavily-footnoted chapters cover the history of X-risk studies (#1), methods for study of X-risk (#2), classifying global catastrophic risks (#3), a typology of vulnerabilities (#4), X-risk and creativity (#5), quantifying the likelihood of X-risk hazards (#6), horizon scanning in policy and practice (#7), AI futures (#8), a living bibliography on X-risk (#9), the mortality of states (#10), participatory exploration of alternative futures (#11), volcanic eruptions (#12), climate and existential change (#14), stratospheric aerosol injection (#15), bioengineering horizons (#16), AI governance (#17), linking science and policy in global risk (#18), global catastrophic governance (#19), nuclear disarmament (#20), autonomous weapons (#21), future generations in UK policy-making (#22), and “financing our final hour” (#23).
Global Catastrophic Risks Assessment
RAND Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center
30 Oct 2024, 237p. “Global catastrophic risk has been increasing in recent years and appears likely to increase in the coming decade.” Catastrophic and existential risks pose a significant threat to human civilization. “Addressing these risks is crucial for assuring long-term survival.” This report, resulting from the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act in 2022, summarizes what is known about six threats and hazards: 1) Nuclear War: could kill hundreds of millions of people directly, and billions indirectly; destruction of economic value could total hundreds of trillions of dollars; estimates of occurrence in the 21st century vary widely; 2) Climate Change: a 2.0oC rise is likely and catastrophic on a local to regional scale but not globally; global warming of 4.0oC is estimated to be <1%; significant uncertainty about earth-system tipping points; 3) AI: amplifies existing catastrophic risk and could result in human disempowerment; likelihood of AI-enabled catastrophe is “deeply uncertain” and depends on human decisions about safety and use of AI; 4) Pandemic: human behavior increases the likelihood of a pandemic, but technology development to manage pandemics could lower the severity of risk; 5) Super-Volcano: super-eruptions occur, but when and where are unclear; perhaps every 15,000 years; 6) Asteroid or Comet Impact: small impacters (30m diameter) every 100 years; medium impacters (300m diameter) every 100,000 years; large impacters (3000m diameter) every 10 million years. Table S-1 summarizes the most significant consequences, likelihood of risk, and quality of evidence supporting the assessment.
*Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
March 2025, 31p. “Reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community, which is committed to providing the nuanced, independent, and unvarnished intelligence that policymakers…need to protect American lives and America’s interests.” Covers Major State Actors (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) and Nonstate Transnational Criminals and Terrorists (foreign illicit drugs actors, transnational Islamic extremists, other transnational criminals). “A range of cyber and intelligence actors re targeting our wealth, critical infrastructure, telecom, and media…These threats reinforce each other, creating a vastly more complex and dangerous security environment.” [NOTE: Reflects the global withdrawal of the Trump 2.0 administration. The broader 2024 Assessment (Feb 2024, 40p) includes the following categories missing in 2025: Shared Domains (environmental change and extreme weather, health security, migration), Contested Spaces (disruptive technology, digital authoritarianism, WMD), and Conflicts and Fragility (Gaza, potential interstate conflict, potential intrastate turmoil).]
Top Risks 2025
Eurasia Group (Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan)
6 Jan 2025, 42p. Outlines a year marked by escalating geopolitical instability and economic fragmentation amid a profound global leadership vacuum—the “G-Zero” world—where no single power or coalition is willing or able to uphold the international order. The rivalry between the US and China intensifies, with rising tariffs and decoupling threatening global trade and investment, while political nationalism and deteriorating cooperation undermine solutions to shared challenges. Highlighting a unique historical moment “on par with the 1930s and the early Cold War,” it warns of “Trumponomics,” Russia as the leading country “to subvert the global order,” Iran on the ropes (“a wounded lion”), and AI unbound. Calls for urgent efforts to bridge political divisions and reinvigorate global cooperation to prevent worsening crises. [NOTE: Ian Bremmer writes a weekly “Risk Report” for Time magazine.]
A Moment of Historic Danger: It Is Still 90 Seconds to Midnight
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
2024 Doomsday Clock Statement, 23 January 2024. The BAS Science and Security Board set their Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight in 2023 and in 2024, the closest to global catastrophe since 1947. Key threats include nuclear proliferation, climate change, biological risks, and AI.
*State of the Future 20.0
Jerome Glenn, Theodore Gordon, Elizabeth Florescu, et al. Millennium Project
Sept 2024. 519p $49.50 PDF. The 20th edition of SOTF continues an overview of 15 Global Challenges: Sustainable Development and Climate (#1), Water(#2), Population and Resources (#3), Democracy (#4), Global Foresight and Decision-Making (#5), Global Information and AI (#6; also a special section on AGI, pp191-374), The Rich/Poor Gap (#7), Health and New/Re-emerging Disease (#8), Education/Learning (#9), Peace/Conflict (#10), Empowerment of Women (#11), Transnational Organized Crime (#12, accounts for c.3-7% of world GDP), Energy (#13), Science/Technology (#14), Global Ethics (#15). Each Challenge has a global overview, special considerations in six regions, and a listing of 20-25 proposed actions, along with numerous links to references.
*The Global Risks Report 2024
World Economic Forum
Jan 2024, 121p. The 19th annual edition, based on a survey of nearly 1500 experts, ranks 34 risks over the next 2 years and 10 years. The top risks for 2026 are misinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarization, and cybersecurity threats. The top risks for 2034 are extreme weather, Earth system change, biodiversity loss, and natural resource shortage. Key findings: “a deteriorating global outlook…expected to worsen,” with a moderate risk of global catastrophes.
*Risks on the Horizon: Insights by Horizon Scanning
EC Joint Research Centre
June 2024, 110p. Decision makers are faced with a world of “increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity.” This study employs foresight and a Delphi survey of 92 participants to enhance preparedness for 40 risks across ten clusters, including decreased well-being, disrupted supply chains, and erosion of democracy. The three risks considered “potentially existential for humanity” are environmental degradation, environmental disasters, and the loss of human power as AI surpasses human capabilities.
*Disruptions on the Horizon: 2024 Report
Policy Horizons Canada
Sept 2024, 37p. The Canadian government’s “centre of excellence in foresight” notes significant global disruptions in recent years, and the “crucial” need to explore possibilities. The Top 10 Most Likely Disruptions include: “people cannot tell what is true” (#1), ecosystem collapse, billionaires running the world, downward social mobility being the norm, emergency response being overwhelmed, a mental health crisis, cyberattacks disabling infrastructure, and AI running wild (#10). The Top Ten with the Highest Impact includes world war (#1), collapse of healthcare systems, civil war in the US, unmet basic needs, breakdown of democracy, and scarcity of natural resources.
World Risks Report
Bundis Entwicklung Hilft
Dec 2023, 76p. Assesses natural disaster risk for 193 countries, based on exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. The 5 countries with the highest disaster risk are the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Mexico, and Colombia. Russia ranks #8, Bangladesh #9, China #10, Pakistan #11, the US #20, Canada #26, Germany #94, and Switzerland #179.
*Global Catastrophic Risks 2024: Managing Risks Through Collective Action
Global Challenges Foundation
Jan 2024, 49p. Examines climate change, ecological collapse, and weapons of mass destruction as major global risks. It illustrates how these threats interact and amplify one another, with climate change at the center. Global governance reforms are necessary for a safer and more sustainable future.
Framework on Management of Emerging Critical Risks
OECD
June 2024, 13p. Seven steps include horizon scanning for critical risks, assessing and sharing information, etc.
World Risk Poll 2024 Report: Resilience in a Changing World
Lloyd’s Register Foundation (UK) and Gallup
June 2024, 45p. A biannual poll of “everyday worries and experiences of risks and harm,” with 147k interviews in 142 countries; 30% of people personally experienced a disaster in the past five years. The Risk Index showed a decline in individual resilience from 2021 to 2023, with 43% of people saying they can’t protect themselves from a future disaster.
Top Risks Forecast
KPMG
May 2024, 42p. Bottom lines for business risk by sector. The three most critical risks are trade restrictions (nearly tripled since 2019), the increasing vulnerability of the geopolitical landscape (including the impact of climate change), and gaps in AI governance. The Sector Geopolitical Risk Heat Map shows the degree of “heat” for ten risks.
Catastrophe: Risk and Response
Richard A. Posner (Univ of Chicago Law School). Oxford Univ Press
2004, 322p. Catastrophes, whether natural or man-made, are often dismissed as alarmist, but “the risk of such disasters is real and growing.” Discusses natural catastrophes, scientific accidents, unintended and intentional man-made catastrophes, why so little is done about these risks, and possible responses.
Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe
Niall Ferguson (Hoover Institution, Stanford Univ). Penguin Books
2021, 491p. A historian on the big disasters in history (pandemics and wars), gray rhinos (foreseen disasters), black swans, the limits of science, plagues, and why complex systems are getting worse at handling disasters. 59 pages of Notes.
Polycrisis
Evolution of the Polycrisis: Anthropocene Traps that Challenge Global Sustainability
Peter Søgaard Jørgensen (Stockholm Resilience Centre) and 12 Others, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (Biological Sciences) 379
Nov 13, 2023. “Anthropocene traps” are potential extinction risks for humanity. Stockholm University researchers identified 14 global, technological, and structural traps, including the pursuit of growth and biosphere disconnection.
*Navigating the Polycrisis: Mapping the Futures of Capitalism and the Earth
Michael J. Albert (U of Edinburgh). MIT Press
April 2024, 298p, $45pb. “Ours is an age of interconnected systemic crises with no end in sight.” We must devote more systematic attention to possible futures. Chapters on critical social science futures, planetary systems thinking, and the socioecological problematic of climate, energy, food, and capitalism. Concludes with seven scenarios: worst-case collapse, neofeudalism, volatile techno-leviathan, stable techno-leviathan, ecomodernist socialism, fortress degrowth, and an ecosocialism world-system. Warns that a reasonable argument can be made that “we’re doomed,” but this “new pessimism” can become a form of escapism, lapsing into apolitical quietism.
Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement
Michael Lawrence, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Johan Rockstrom, Ortwin Renn, and Two Others
Global Sustainability 7 2024, 16p, on multiple global crises.
Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook
UNICEF Innocenti– Global Office of Research and Foresight and The Atlantic Council
Jan 2023, 53p. Key polycrisis trends include COVID-19, inflation, and food insecurity. It warns of systemic risks while proposing positive changes, focusing on the impact of the polycrisis on the SDGs and children’s welfare.
Briefing on UN80 Initiative: System-wide Reform Plans to Make UN More Effective, Nimble, Fit for Today’s Challenges
SG/SM/22644
12 May 2025, 7p. June 2025 will be the 80th anniversary of the UN Charter, “our road map to a better world.” The UN80 Initiative “is central for implementing the Pact for the Future…(and) crucial for advancing the SDGs. In these “times of peril…we face real threats” to our values and principles. This Secretary-General Briefing describes three key workstreams of the Initiative: 1) to identify efficiencies and improvements under current arrangements rapidly; 2) to review implementation of all mandates given to us by Member States; 3) to consider “the need for structural changes and program realignment across the UN system.” Priority areas include functional consolidation, workforce streamlining, relocating services from high-cost duty stations, and expanding digital platforms. “Uncomfortable and difficult decisions lie ahead…we cannot afford to act in any other way.
Sustainable Development Report 2024: The SDGs and the UN Summit of the Future
Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Jeffrey D. Sachs et al.
June 2024, 512p. “Only 16% of the SDG targets are on track to be met globally by 2030.” Food and land systems are esp. off-track.
Sustainable Development Report 2022
SDSN, Bertelsmann Stiftung, and Cambridge Univ. Press
June 2022, 508p. Includes the SDG Index of progress since 2010 (no progress made in 2020 and 2021), SDG dashboards on trends by income groups and world regions, scorecards for the six SDG transformations, government SDG commitments, and country profiles encompassing 426 pages.
*Progress Towards the SDGs: Report of the Secretary-General
UN Economic and Social Council
2 May 2024, 26p. Early years of the SDGs saw slow but steady progress; efforts since 2019 “have faced severe global headwinds.” Despite challenges, “glimmers of hope remain”.
Transforming Our World: Interdisciplinary Insights on the Sustainable Development Goals
SDSN Europe
June 2023, 125p. A SDSN Senior Work Group report on the European Green Deal, on sustainable development’s key role in global challenges. It explores the EU’s potential to reshape sustainability, private sector SDG funding issues, capital interconnections, carbon farming, green jobs, eco-anxiety’s impact on environmental responsibility, and improved climate risk communication to promote eco-friendly actions.
Multi-Stakeholder Forum on Science, Tech, and Innovation for the SDGs
UN Economic and Social Council
31 May 2024, 19p Summary. “Solutions and innovations to support progress across the SDGs with a focus on Goals 1, 2, 13, 16, and 17, with >300 scientists submitting briefs and 99 passing peer review. Emphasis on AI driving precision farms to increase yields up to 70% by 2050 and AI potential in health care—but AI data centers consume `1% of global electricity and use large amounts of freshwater.
Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development: Effective Delivery of Sustainable, Resilient and Innovative Solutions
UN Economic and Social Council
1 May 2024, 15p. “A confluence of catastrophic events has put the world in a perpetual crisis mode (with) multiple, overlapping crises.” SDG investment is “a cost-effective resilience-building strategy.” Six investment pathways are proposed for food systems, energy access, education, jobs, climate, pollution, etc.
17 Rooms: Rejuvenating the Sustainable Development Goals Through Shared Action
Brookings Center for Sustainable Development and The Rockefeller Foundation
Dec 2022, 28p. Begun in 2018, this initiative aligns 17 groups with each SDG to develop actionable priorities. Groups focus on goals like improving poverty measurement, promoting alternative food sources, and creating cities. Three critical factors for SDG progress: SDG ownership, diverse collaborations, and cross-boundary connections among leaders and organizations.
SDG 16 Data Initiative Report 2022
SDG 16 Data Initiative
Nov 2022, 94p. A coalition of 17 organizations tracks progress on the three pillars of Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions. Their 6th annual report aims to support the measurement of SDG 16 targets. It covers topics like SDG target interlinkages, information access, the rule of law, democracy, and violence reduction. Meeting SDG 16 targets remains challenging in countries facing democratic decline and conflict.
Special Issue on Human Security, CADMUS, 5:1
World Academy of Art & Science
March 2023, 157p. On the need for a new paradigm to address multidimensional global crises, with 16 essays covering various aspects of HS, from education and heritage protection to economic and technological considerations. The concept of HS, introduced by UNDP in 1994 and reinforced by subsequent UN initiatives, encompasses the 17 SDGs while emphasizing both individual and collective security dimensions.
New Threats to Human Security: Demanding Greater Solidarity
UN Development Programme
Feb 2022, 175p Special Report. Despite improvements in longevity and health, global insecurity is on the rise. Geopolitical tensions, inequalities, democratic decline, climate change, hunger, displacement, and COVID-19 threaten development gains and SDG progress.
Human Security: A QuickLook at Leading Organizations
Lorenzo Rodriguez, Security & Sustainability Guide
Dec 2021. Abstracts of 12 organizations, including Human Security Centre, International Institute for Human Security, and the Journal of Human Security.
*Our Liveable Planet: Annual Report 2024
Stockholm Resilience Centre
May 2025, 113p. Integrates latest scientific insights on planetary boundaries, biodiversity loss, climate change, and human health, highlighting the intertwined crises of environmental degradation and social inequalities, and underscoring the urgency of systemic transformations. Emphasis is placed on cross-sectoral policies that advance sustainability targets for cities, promote food resilience, enhance ocean conservation, drive transformational research, and support education programs, as well as improve water governance. Explores innovative approaches, including augmented sustainability science and just transformation frameworks. “We can no longer discuss climate, nature, or biodiversity as separate issues.” [NOTE: A complex chart on p.2 depicts development beyond 2030 of “A Thriving and Resilient Biosphere that Enables Well-being for All.”]
*Summit of the Future Outcome Documents: Pact for the Future, Global Digital Compact, and Declaration on Future Generations
United Nations
Sept 2024, 66p. Final version of the Pact, listing 56 Actions on sustainable development and financing (“we will take bold, ambitious, accelerated, just and transformative actions to implement the 2030 Agenda”), international peace and security (“we will redouble our efforts to build and sustain peaceful, inclusive and just societies and address the root causes of conflicts”), science and technology, youth and future generations, and global governance. The Global Digital Compact (pp. 40-55) aims to “close all digital divides” and enhance the governance of AI. The Declaration seeks stronger youth participation.
*Our Common Agenda: Report of the Secretary-General
United Nations
Sept 2021, 84p. Describes a choice between Breakdown and Breakthrough, and offers an Agenda for Action in six areas: Solidarity, Social Contract, Science, Economics, Youth, and Multilateralism. Proposes global issues plans, and reforms in governance, taxation, and partnerships. Progress is seen as achieving 50% of goals by 2030. [NOTE: For a review and comparison with the “Brundtland” report, see Cadmus (4:5, Nov 2021, 42-47).]
A World Call to Action: On the Multiple Crises Now Enfolding Humanity
Club of Rome and The Council for the Human Future
July 2024, 34p. “Humanity faces multiple global catastrophic risks…a mounting security threat to all.” This Roundtable on the Human Future compiles one-pagers from 25 groups, calling for a World Plan of Action to address the “polycrisis” and the grave lack of awareness.
Earth For All: A Survival Guide for Humanity. Report to the Club of Rome
Sandrine Dixson-Decleve, Jorgen Randers, Johan Rockstrom, and 3 Others. New Society Publishers
Sept 2022, 196p, $13.99pb. Explores two scenarios from 1980 to 2100: “Too Little, Too Late” and “The Giant Leap.” The latter is achievable if societies adopt immediate action across five key turnarounds: reforming international finance to end poverty, addressing gross inequality, achieving full gender equity, transforming the food system to provide healthy diets for both people and the planet, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2030.
Advancing the Global Futures Platform for Planet, People and Peace (P4PPP)
InterAction Council and the University of Southampton
Sept 2024, Summary, 56p. Highlights escalating risks and existential security threats, advocating for open-source solutions, stronger leadership, global governance reforms, and a global pandemic response app.
A World Parliament: Governance and Democracy in the 21st Century
Andreas Bummel (Founder, DWB) and Jo Leinen (former Member of the European Parliament). Democracy Without Borders, 2nd Edition,
July 2024, 541p, PDF 15E; PB 25E. A peaceful, just, and sustainable world civilization requires an evolutionary leap forward. Explains why the world’s multiple challenges and crises cannot be addressed effectively and legitimately without democracy.
Climate Outlooks | Climate Remedies | Tipping Points | Planetary Boundaries | Energy Transition | Biodiversity | Arctic Warming | Forests | Oceans | Water | Pollution | Waste | Global Commons | Natural Disasters
State of the Global Climate 2024
World Meteorological Organization
March 2025, 42p. 2024 was the warmest year on record, at 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. Last year, “the world experienced 152 unprecedented climate events and 297 unusual extreme events related to climate change.” Highlights intensifying ocean heat, sea-level rise, glacier loss, and the frozen parts of Earth’s surface (the cryosphere) “melting at an alarming rate.”. Extreme weather events led to record displacements, with worsening food insecurity linked to El Niño. Urges greater investment in early warning systems, noting that half of the countries still lack full multi-hazard coverage.
*Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
23 March 2023, 85p; 36p Summary for Policymakers. Synthesizes findings from three Working Groups, confirming human-caused warming and widespread environmental changes. Warns of escalating risks, especially for vulnerable communities, and stresses urgent action on emissions reduction and adaptation. This decade is critical.
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II
March 2022, 3,675p; Summary for Policymakers 35p). The work of 267 researchers on the ecosystem and human exposure, risks to 2040 and 2100, compound and cascading risks, benefits of adaptation measures, the feasibility of future options, and resilient development.
State of the Global Climate 2023
World Meteorological Organization
March 2024, 53p. 2023 set new temperature records, with extreme weather events causing widespread damage. In response, the WMO aims to address the growing climate crisis.
European Climate Risk Assessment
European Environment Agency (Copenhagen)
March 2024, 340p; 40p Summary. “Europe faces severe climate risks as the fastest-warming continent globally.” Identifies 36 critical risks, including extreme heat, floods, and droughts. These events threaten food, water, and energy security, with cascading impacts on societies. Risks are evaluated on severity, policy readiness, and urgency, providing a framework for EU policy action.
*National Climate Risk Assessment: First Pass Report
Australian Government
March 2024, 34p. Identifies 56 significant climate risks in 7 systems, and the degree of hazard now, in 2050, and 2090. A “Second Pass Assessment” of 11 priorities is due in late 2024.
*The 2024 State of the Climate Report: Perilous Times on Planet Earth
William J. Ripple, Johan Rockstrom, and 13 Others, BioScience Special Report
9 Oct 2024, 13p. “We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster…a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life is imperilled.” Despite warnings for many years, we continue to move in the wrong direction. “Of the 35 planetary vital signs we track annually, 25 are at record levels.” The global failure to support a fossil fuel phasedown “has led to rapidly escalating climate-related impacts,” as humanity’s collective size and consumption patterns continue to “accelerate on multiple fronts.”
World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2022
William J. Ripple, Johan Rockstrom, and 10 Others, BioScience Special Report
Dec 2022, 1149-1155. Declares a “code red” for Earth, projecting 3°C warming by 2100 under current policies.
Global Warming in the Pipeline
James E. Hansen and 17 Others, Oxford Open Climate Change, 3:1
Nov 2, 2023. Global warming is rising due to declining aerosol emissions, with projections exceeding 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2.0°C by 2050. This acceleration will intensify impacts on people and nature, mainly through extreme weather events.
Climate Endgame: Exploring Catastrophic Climate Change Scenarios
Luke Kemp, Johan Rockstrom, Will Steffan, and 8 Others, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences/PNAS, 119:34, 1
Aug 2022, 9p. Climate change poses potential risks of global societal collapse or even human extinction. This critical area remains understudied despite compelling reasons to consider catastrophic scenarios.
Rhodium Climate Outlook: Probabilistic Projections of Energy Emissions and Global Temperature Rise
Kate Larson and 8 Others. Rhodium Group (Washington)
Nov 2023, 29p. Projects global temperatures rising 2.0-4.0°C by 2100 (mean 2.8°C). Despite progress in clean electricity and transport, industrial emissions may increase. Fossil fuel use is expected to peak soon, but will remain substantial through 2060.
*The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming
David Wallace-Wells (New York Times). Tim Duggan Books/Random House
2019, 361p. We are speeding toward warming of 3°C by 2100; “the best-case outcome is death and suffering at the scale of 25 Holocausts, and the worst case makes extinction plausible, if unlikely.” Elements of chaos include heat death, hunger, drowning, wildfire, freshwater drain, dying oceans, economic collapse, climate conflict and refugees, and systems crises as climate becomes a threat multiplier. Also comments on crisis capitalism, the “church of technology” in Silicon Valley, the politics of consumption, and ethics at the end of the world. 77 pages of Notes.
The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet
Jeff Goodell (Rolling Stone Contributing Editor). Little, Brown
July 2023, 385p. As temperatures rise, it will drive a great migration of people, animals, plants, jobs, wealth, and diseases—all seeking a cooler place to thrive. Extreme heat lowers students’ test scores, increases death rates, and leads to conflict, as heat waves become longer, hotter, and more frequent. “In the long run, extreme heat is an extinction force.” Select bibliography of c.60 items and 40 pages of Notes.
*UN’s Secretary-General’s Call to Action on Extreme Heat
United Nations
July 2024, 20p. The climate crisis drives crippling heat everywhere; everyone is at risk, but not equally. Needed actions: care for the vulnerable and workers, reduce energy demand, more action on extreme heat.
Beyond Foundations: Cut Emissions from Buildings Sector
UN Environment Programme
March 2024, 100p. The buildings and construction sector contributes c.21% of global GHG emissions. Some 60% of buildings that will exist by 2050 have not been built yet, and 20% of existing stock needs renovation. Energy efficiency is a high priority, but must be combined with materials efficiency.
State of Climate Action 2023
S.L. Boehm and 23 Others. World Resources Institute, Systems Change Lab
Nov 2023, 244p. On the climate action paradox: severe climate emergency with slow overall progress, yet notable renewable energy advancements. Analyzes global emissions by sector and assesses 42 climate indicators.
*Climate Policies That Achieved Major Emission Reductions: Global Evidence from Two Decades
A. Stechemesser and 11 Others, Science
22 Aug 2024, 884-892. Evaluates 1500 climate policy measures from 41 countries, finding that only 63 cases were successful, leading to average emission reductions of 19%. Describes best practices for the electricity, building, industry and transport sectors in both rich and poorer countries. The right mix of measures is crucial: subsidies or regulations alone are insufficient, but can deliver progress when combined with tax and price incentives in well-designed mixes.
10 New Insights in Climate Science
Future Earth, The Earth League, and World Climate Research Programme
Dec 2023, 49p. Ten “crucial” insights include the inevitable 1.5°C warming overshoot, the need for drastic changes, risks of overreliance on natural carbon sinks, biodiversity interconnections, growing threats from compound events and glacier loss, and food systems’ critical climate role.
The Circularity Gap Report 2023
Circle Economy and Deloitte
Jan 2023, 39p. “A circular economy to live within the safe limits of the planet.” The global economy is now only 7.2% circular, and it’s getting worse, driven by driven by rising material extraction and use.
Pathways to a Healthy Net-Zero Future: The Lancet Pathfinder Commission Report
The Lancet
Nov 21 2023, 13p Summary. Climate change seen as the greatest threat to human health. Mitigation is often seen negatively, but many interventions offer health co-benefits like less air pollution and more physical activity.
On Behalf of My Delegation: A Survival Guide for New and Lonely Climate Change Negotiators
IISD Earth Negotiations Bulletin
Second Edition, Dec 2023, 156p. A resource for climate change negotiators, covering strategies and agreements.
Global Trends in Climate Change Litigation: 2024 Snapshot
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Columbia Law School
June 2024, 55p. More than 230 new climate cases were filed in 2023, many of them seeking to hold governments and companies accountable. May of the cases have significant potential to influence policy.
The Impacts of Climate Disinformation on Public Perception
Climate Action Against Disinformation and Conscious Advertising Network
Nov 2022, 72p. A survey of climate change perceptions across six countries, finding 6-23% doubt climate change; 22-38% believe humans are partly responsible, and >25% in each country believe net zero by 2050 is unaffordable.
Climate-Poverty Connections: Opportunities for Synergistic Solutions
Project Drawdown
March 2022, 107p. Summarizes evidence of human well-being co-benefits from 28 climate mitigation solutions previously analyzed by Project Drawdown. Climate solutions are linked to improving agriculture and agro-forestry, protecting and restoring ecosystems, adopting clean cooking, providing clean energy, and fostering equality in under-resourced rural communities. Also considers financing and critical actions.
Turning Over a New Leaf: Interconnected Disaster Risks
UN University/EHS (Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn)
April 2025, 91p. Previous editions identified six tipping points: 1) Accelerating Extinctions ) a chain reaction to ecosystem collapse); 2) Groundwater Depletion (over half of major aquifers are depleted faster than replenishment, putting food production at risk); 3) Mountain Glaciers Melting (steady decline of water run-off); 4) Space Debris (losing our eyes in the sky); 5) Unbearable Heat (living in the unlivable); 6) Uninsurable Future (when costs of insurance are no longer affordable). Most solutions focus on delay actions that slow progression toward risk tipping points, e.g. air conditioners in hot climates. Transformative solutions, however, can move us away from multiplying risk tipping points. This edition focuses on five fundamental changes: e.g.: rethink waste from trash to treasure, realign with nature, and redefine value. [NOTE: Big ideas, small print.]
The Science Behind the Climate Emergency
Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development (Washington)
May 2024, 159p. “Climate change poses an existential threat to humankind.” The emergency is a challenge of temperature, tipping points just ahead that “will cause irreversible and potentially catastrophic impacts,” and time: without fast action, “we are likely to exceed the 1.5oC guardrail by 2030.” Provides non-technical survey of human causes of climate change, climate impacts in the Americas, and actions to substantially mitigate pollutants.
*Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023: Risk Tipping Points
UN University, Institute for Environment and Human Security
Oct 2023, 96p. On six increasing global risks: biodiversity, groundwater, glacier melt, rising heat and uninhabitable places, uninsurability, and space debris.
*Global Tipping Points Report 2023
Timothy M. Lenton and 18 Others. University of Exeter Global Systems Institute
Dec 2023, 478p; 32p Summary. Identifies > 25 Earth system tipping points across cryosphere, biosphere, and ocean/atmosphere circulations. Some systems are nearing or at tipping points. Crossing these could trigger catastrophic cascading effects, highlighting the urgent need for emissions reduction and nature restoration.
*Planetary Health Check: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet
Leuka Caesar, Johan Rockstrom, and 16 Others, Planetary Boundaries Science (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Sept 2024, 93p. The first annual report on PB research and our need “to become stewards of the entire Earth system,” serving as foundation for the Planetary Guardians of global leaders, translating science into action. Describes the six processes that have breached safe PB levels: climate change, biosphere integrity, land systems, freshwater, biogeochemical flows (phosphorus and nitrogen), and novel entities (plastics, GMOs, synthetic chemicals). Ocean acidification is close to a critical threshold; atmospheric aerosol loading and ozone depletion are still within safe spaces.
The Planetary Commons: A New Paradigm for Safeguarding Earth-regulating Systems in the Anthropocene
Johan Rockstrom and 21 Others, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 121:5
22 Jan 2024. The Anthropocene era, marked by unprecedented human impact on Earth, has led to crossing six of nine planetary boundaries. The “Planetary Commons” concept proposes comprehensive stewardship and Earth system governance to restore resilience and ensure global justice.
Earth Beyond Six of Nine Planetary Boundaries
Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, et al., Science Advances 9
Sept 2023, 16p. The updated planetary boundaries framework reveals that six out of nine boundaries have been crossed, pushing Earth outside its safe operating space. Covers climate, biosphere integrity, and land use, among others.
Earth System Justice: Respecting Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries While Meeting Basic Needs for All
Joyeeta Gupta et al., Earth Commission and Global Challenges Foundation
Jan 2024, 41p. Introduces a new framework addressing the inequality and environmental degradation that cross multiple planetary boundaries.
*A Just World on a Safe Planet: A Lancet Planetary Health-Earth Commission Report on Earth-system Boundaries, Translations, and Transformations
Joyeeta Gupta, Johan Rockström, et al., Lancet Planetary Health
Sept 2024, 61p. Deterioration of the global commons…is exacerbating energy, food, and water insecurity, and increasing the risk of disease, disaster, displacement, and conflict.” Some 9m premature deaths/year are linked to air and water pollution, >3b people are affected by land degradation, and many millions are affected by zoonotic disease, rising heat, and extreme weather. The Commission defines 8 safe and just ESBs; 7 of the ESBs have already been transgressed (climate, phosphorus, nitrogen, surface water, groundwater, etc.); the 8th ESB, air pollution, has been transgressed in many world localities. Links global environmental degradation to public health, food, water security, and an increased risk of disease and conflict. It defines eight Earth-system boundaries, seven of which have already been breached.
Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 2: Strengthening the International Response to Complex Global Shocks—an Emergency Platform
UN General Assembly (A/77/CRP.1/Add.1)
15 Feb 2023, 28p. On the rising complexity of 21st-century global shocks, exemplified by COVID-19 and the cost-of-living crisis. To improve preparedness and response, the UN proposes a “Futures Lab”, Global Risk Report, and an Emeregency Platform to coordinate efforts.
*Renewables 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2030
International Energy Agency
Oct 2024, 177p. An annual market report, noting that “global renewable capacity is expected to grow by 2.7 times by 2030,” surpassing current ambitions by nearly 25%, but falling short of the IEA tripling goal. This strong pace of progress is an opportunity for countries to enhance ambitions in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions, due in 2025. The two main drivers are solar PV capacity and China (accounting for 60% of expanded global capacity to 2030). The EU and US are both forecast to double the pace of capacity growth between 2024 and 2030. New solar capacity will account for 80% of global growth by 2030 due to declining costs and wider acceptance. The wind sector is expected to recover. Hydrogen remains a negligible driver.
Renewable Energy and Sustainability Report: Ecosystems, Materials, Energy Justice
REN21: Renewables Now
Jan 2024, 187p. Founded in 2004, REN21 “drives the renewable energy transition by creating an enabling environment for renewables to become the obvious choice.” The RESR builds a common vision for evolving best practices and trends.
Global Energy Transitions Stocktake
International Energy Agency
Feb 2023 (unpaginated). Reports on clean energy progress, slight CO2 emissions growth, increased heat pump and EV sales, government clean energy investments, and rising clean energy investments.
*Tripling Renewable Power and Doubling Energy Efficiency by 2030: Crucial Steps Towards 1.5oC.
Global Renewables Alliance and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
Nov 2023, 63p. Prepared for COP28UAE, outlines policy priorities in four categories: 1) Infrastructure and System Operation (power grids, energy storage, end-use electrification and sector coupling, demand-side management); 2) Policy and Regulation (improving energy efficiency, market incentives, power market design, streamlined permitting, reducing negative impacts; 3) Skills and Capacities (resilient supply chains, education and training; 4) Public and Private Finance: scaling it up, enhancing international collaboration. [See full-page advt in New York Times (9-23-24, D8) with endorsements by >200 organizations.]
*From Taking Stock to Taking Action: How to Implement the COP28 Energy Goals
International Energy Agency
Special Report, Sept 2024, 80p. Ahead of COP28, the IEA developed five pillars for global action in the energy sector by 2030 to help keep the 1.5oC goal alive, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the rate of energy efficiency progress, and significantly reducing methane emissions from fossil fuels. With the approach of COP29 in Baku, the focus must continue to shift toward promises made by nearly 200 countries in Dubai. This report provides guidance for decision-makers and for a new series of High-Level Energy Transition Dialogues at COP29.
*Keeping It Chill: How to Meet Cooling Demand While Cutting Emissions
UN Environment Programme
Dec 2023, 121p. Rising global temperatures and growing populations are driving a rapid increase in cooling demand. This “Global Cooling Watch 2023” report predicts cooling equipment capacity will triple by 2050, doubling electricity use. This growth challenges power grids and renewable energy transitions.
Cooler Finance: Mobilizing Investment for the Developing World’s Sustainable Cooling Needs
Cool Coalition (led by UN Environment Programme) and International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group)
Sept 2024, 188p. Most of the 3.5 billion people who live in hot climates do not have access to thermal comforts. As the world heats up, health-related impacts are increasing, along with substantial productivity losses. Sustainable cooling policies integrate passive cooling, energy efficiency, faster phasedown of warming refrigerants, and national cooling plans. Most important is a massive increase in investment from the private sector, in a market that could grow to >$500 billion/year by 2050.
*Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril
World Wildlife Fund and Zoological Society of London
Sept 2024, 94p. Biodiversity sustains human life and underpins our societies. Since 1970, wildlife populations measured by the Living Planet Index have shrunk: freshwater populations by 85%, marine populations by 56%, and terrestrial populations by 69%. The fastest declines have been seen in Latin America (95%), Africa (76%), and Asia/Pacific (60%). Habitat degradation and loss, driven primarily by our “illogical” food system, is the most reported threat, followed by overexploitation, invasive species, disease, and climate change. Dangerous tipping points are approaching in the Amazon and among coral reefs. Transformation is needed in our conservation efforts, and our food, energy, and finance systems.
*The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review
Partha Dasgupta (Prof, Cambridge Univ). HM Treasury
Feb 2022, 610p (103p Short Version; 8p Headline Messages). On the critical decline of natural capital, with a 40% decrease per person from 1992 to 2014. Current global living standards require 1.6 Earths to sustain, and many ecosystems risk irreparable damage. Calls for transformative change in thinking, acting, and measuring success, stressing the importance of incorporating nature into education and addressing the $4-6 trillion annual cost of nature-damaging subsidies.
Arctic Report Card 2024
NOAA
Dec 2024, 116p. Documents rapid and complex environmental changes, emphasizing that the region is firmly within a “new regime” of climate conditions. Key findings include continuing Arctic warming at rates as much as four times the global average, “Arctic tundra transformation from carbon sink to carbon source” (italics added), increasing winter precipitation, and persistent low levels of thick, multi-year sea ice. While some annual records were not broken in 2024, long-term trends reveal sustained warming, longer fire seasons, and altered marine productivity, with sea surface temperatures 2–4°C above recent baselines in many marginal seas. Stresses the urgency of “new and strengthened Arctic adaptation and global reductions of fossil fuel pollution” to minimize future risks, supports Indigenous knowledge integration as essential for community resilience, and underscores enhanced collaboration across sectors to address the unfolding Arctic crisis.
*A Farewell to Ice: A Report From the Arctic
Peter Wadhams (Prof of Ocean Physics, Cambridge Univ). Oxford Univ Press
2017, 240p. Chapters on the history of ice on Planet Earth, the greenhouse effect, the Arctic Death Spiral as summer sea ice disappears, methane release from melting offshore permafrost, Arctic methane as “a catastrophe in the making” (extra global temperature rise by 2040 is 0.6oC) and the quantity of carbon from thawing permafrost on land by 2100 as “30 times the offshore methane pulse which we fear in the next decade” (p.130).
Arctic Warming: A QuickLook at Concerned Organizations
Cyrine Azaiez. Security & Sustainability Guide
June 2021. Describes 20 organizations, including Arctic Council, International Polar Foundation, and University of the Arctic.
Arctic Report Card 2023
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Washington)
Dec 2023, 117p 18th edition on key vital signs: extreme heat, warming ocean water, more precipitation, subsea permafrost, more marine algae, largest wildfire on record, etc. “The Arctic continues to rapidly evolve…pushing the broader Earth system into uncharted territory.”
The State of the World’s Forests: Forest-Sector Innovations Towards a More Sustainable Future
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)
July 2024, 122p. Deforestation is slowing, but forests are under pressure from climate stressors and rising forest product demand.
Forest 500: A Decade of Deforestation Data. Annual Report 2024
Global Canopy
March 2024, 84p. Ten lessons from ten years, e.g.: transparency is essential, public pressure leads to action, voluntary action by Forest 500 companies “doesn’t cut it”, human rights (the most concerning trend of all) must be embedded, rapid progress is possible, commitments are never enough, forests are central to the climate agenda, etc.
The Land Gap Report
landgap.org
Nov 2022, 99p. Warns that over-reliance on land-based carbon removal could threaten ecosystems, land rights, and food security, potentially requiring land equivalent to half of global croplands. It covers global land demand, forest protection, indigenous land rights, agricultural practices, and agroecology for resilience and human rights.
State of the World’s Forests
UN Food and Agriculture Organization
May 2022, 166p. Environmental deterioration contributes to climate change, biodiversity loss, and new diseases. Forests and trees are crucial in addressing these crises and moving to sustainable economies. Pathways halting deforestation: restoring degraded lands, expanding agroforestry, sustainably using forests, and building green value chains.
The Invisible Wave: Getting to Zero Chemical Pollution in the Ocean
Back to Blue Initiative, Economist Impact, and The Nippon Foundation
March 2022. Chemical pollution in oceans, including heavy metals, pesticides, and plastics, is pervasive and often invisible. Urgent action is needed as marine chemical pollution worsens, mainly due to increased production in countries with lax regulations, with 350,000 registered chemicals and thousands added yearly.
Copernicus Ocean State Report
K. von Schuckmann and 38 Others. Copernicus Marine Service and European Union, 30
Sept 2024, 272p. First launched in 2015, this 8th edition has detailed analysis of ocean change and variability. Since the 1970s, ocean warming has intensified, doubling its rate over the past two decades. Global mean sea level has risen at intensifying rates. The Arctic Ocean has faced unprecedented warming and sea ice loss. Antarctic sea ice has reached record lows. Ocean acidification has progressed, and marine heatwaves are more frequent, intense, and extensive.
Ministerial Declaration on Water for Shared Prosperity
World Water Forum
Bali, May 2024, 15p. An “urgent call” for protection and sustainable use of water resources, with better access to clean water and sanitation for all. Proposes World Lake Day to highlight lakes as a major resource.
United Nations System-wide Strategy for Water and Sanitation
UN-Water
July 2024, 68p. Emphasizes that SDG#6 is off track, with billions still lacking access to safe water and sanitation. The SDG6 Global Acceleration Framework promotes five key accelerators: financing, data, capacity development, innovation, and governance.
Water Security: A QuickLook at Leading Organizations
Iman Bint Abdul Wagid. Security & Sustainability Guide
June 2021. Describes 17 organizations, including International Water Association, Global Water Partnership, and Food and Water Watch.
Global Soil Pollution by Toxic Metals Threatens Agriculture and Human Health
Devi Hou and 8 Others, Science
April 17, 2025, 5p. Documents the pervasive contamination of soils worldwide by toxic metals such as lead, cadmium, and arsenic, posing serious risks. Overall, “14 to 17% of cropland is affected by toxic metal pollution globally, and 0.9 to 1.4 billion people live in regions of heightened public health and ecological risks.” Highlights the sources of pollution—industrial activity, waste mismanagement, and agrochemical use—and their impacts on food security and ecosystem services. Calls for strengthened monitoring, remediation efforts, and policy integration to mitigate exposure and protect vulnerable populations. The “silent threat” of oil pollution will likely increase with the growing demand for toxic metals in new technologies.
Berlin Forum Bulletin
IISD Earth Negotiations Bulletin
Sept 2024, 13p. Summarizes the 3rd Berlin Forum on Chemicals and Sustainability, which reviewed progress and shared initiatives on global chemical and waste management.
Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040
OECD
Oct 2024, 132p. Escalating levels of plastics have led to increasing waste and pollution of this all-pervasive material, e.g. production, use, and waste have more than doubled since 2000. Business-as-usual is unsustainable for human health and ecosystems, expanding by 70% by 2040. Five scenarios are contrasted, ranging from light to high ambition, each with 10 policy instruments regarding production and demand, circularity, recycling, and closing leakage.
Bend the Trend: A Liveable Planet as Resource Use Spikes
UN Environment Programme, Global Resources Outlook
March 2024, 181p. Resources are extracted, processed, consumed, and discarded in a way that drives “the triple planetary crisis” of climate, biodiversity loss, and pollution. Action at scale is required against waste and emissions, and to promote productivity.
Global Framework on Chemicals—For a Planet Free of Harm from Chemicals and Waste
UN Environment Programme
Sept 2023, 92p. The Fifth International Conference on Chemicals Management report stresses the global health impacts of chemical pollution, with millions of deaths linked to chemical exposure annually.
Chemicals Without Harm: Policies for a Sustainable Planet
Ken Geiser (Univ of Mass-Lowell). MIT Press
2015, 440p. Chemicals have enriched the lives of people worldwide, but many of these chemicals pose significant risks to human health and ecosystems. We need to reframe the problem from a focus on hazardous chemicals to a broader focus on the system of production and consumption, leading to more comprehensive solutions. Bibliography of >400 items with 41 pages of Notes.
Air Pollution: A QuickLook at Organizations Working Toward Clean Air
Iman Bint Abdul Wagid. Security & Sustainability Guide
March 2022. Describes 12 organizations, including Climate and Clean Air Coalition, Clean Air Asia, and Clean Air Task Force.
*Beyond an Age of Waste: Turning Rubbish into a Resource
UN Environment Programme
Feb 2024, 116p. The first Global Waste Management Outlook was published in 2015; GWMO 2024 covers types of waste, municipal solid waste, waste-to-energy, barriers to change, ineffective legislation, non-paying polluters, climate impacts, pathways to prevention, circular economy models, etc.
Think Eat Save: Tracking Progress to Halve Global Food Waste
UN Environment Programme
March 2024, 191p. Food waste generates 8-10% of global GHGs, and takes up the equivalent of nearly 30% of world agricultural land. Yet, >780 million people are affected by hunger each year. 93 countries now have some estimate of food waste, up from 52 countries in the 2021 Food Waste Report.
Global Commons Stewardship Index: Transforming Global Production and Consumption for Earth’s Safe Operating Space
SDSN, Yale Center for Environmental Law, and Center for Global Commons
May 2024, 362p. Technical report on global supply chains, sectoral trade flows of spillover impacts, country profiles, and policy pathways.
Global Commons Survey 2024: Attitudes to Planetary Stewardship
Earth4All and Global Commons Alliance
Sept 2024, 80p. Partnering with Ipsos and various global organizations, this survey involved 22 countries, finding that 52% of respondents in the G20 feel exposed to environmental risks, and 60% believe the costs of pollution far outweigh investments in green transitions.
Safeguarding the Global Commons for Human Prosperity and Environmental Sustainability
Center for Global Commons
May 2022, 84p. A joint effort with SDSN, SYSTEMIQ, and the Potsdam Institute, presenting The Global Commons Stewardship Framework. Action levers include setting clear targets, resetting economics and finance, ensuring inclusion and fairness, and harnessing data and technology.
Population | Inequality | Poverty Reduction | Migration | Cities | Food and Agriculture | Health and Pandemics | Education and Learning
World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results
UN Dept of Economic and Social Affairs
July 2022, 40p. UN projections estimate global population growth to 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050, peaking at 10.4 billion in the 2080s. Life expectancy is expected to increase from 72.8 years in 2019 to 77.2 years by 2050. Achieving SDGs may reduce fertility and population growth, while global crises could also impact these projections.
Green Technology Book: Solutions for Climate Change Mitigation
World Intellectual Property Organization
2nd Edition, Dec 2023, 250p. “The world now has access to 80% of the technologies needed to halve GHGs by 2030, with many more game-changing solutions in the pipeline.” A big part of the problem is the “disconnect between those who have and want to offer the technology and those who need it.” This report showcases more than 200 climate mitigation technologies in three areas: cities, agriculture and land use, and industry.
Solutions for Cities: An Overview
Solar Impulse Foundation
Sept 2022, 29p. Many technological solutions exist today to protect the environment economically and profitably. They represent systems, devices, products, materials, and energy sources in water, mobility, construction, energy, industry, and agriculture. Assesses obstacles to change and presents more than 200 solutions ordered according to their level of disruption to existing systems.
Laying the Groundwork for Modeling Resilience in Agrifood System Pathways
FABLE Consortium
April 2025, 12p. The Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-Use and Energy Consortium supports food and land use pathways for greater sustainability. Agrifood systems are highly dependent on healthy ecosystems and a suitable climate, and the impacts of shocks are often severe. Extreme weather and conflicts, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are the primary sources of shocks. Climate change is causing unprecedented climate extremes, “expected to occur at increasingly larger scales, more frequently, at unpredictable times, in new places, and concurrently.” This brief presents foundational modelling approaches to strengthen resilience in agrifood systems. Emphasizes systems-based strategies to anticipate shocks, address vulnerabilities, and guide effective policies. Supports adaptive and sustainable pathways to ensure food security.
Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action
COP28UAE
Nov 2024, 4p. A Declaration by 160 countries, including the US and UK, on adverse climate impacts “increasingly threatening” resilience of food systems and the ability of many to produce and access food, the right to “safe, sufficient, affordable, and nutritious food for all,” agriculture and food systems as “fundamental to lives and livelihoods of billions of people,” the need of agriculture and food systems to “adapt and transform,” etc. Proposes greater effort to support vulnerable people, strengthening integrated management of water, enhancing soil health and biodiversity, reducing food loss and waste, promoting “sustainable aquatic blue foods,” integrating agriculture and food systems into climate action, etc.
The Food Systems Countdown Report 2024: Tracking Progress and Managing Interactions
Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition, FAO, Cornell CALS, and Columbia Climate School
14 Jan 2025, 17p. The Countdown is a global research initiative with experts from all major world regions. It has developed a monitoring framework on five themes: diets and nutrition, environment and natural resources, livelihoods and poverty, governance, and resilience. It identifies 50 indicators to measure elements of these themes; 20 have changed in a desirable direction, e.g., access to safe water across all regions and more efficient use of nitrogen; 7 have significantly worsened, e.g., food price volatility and governance. Overall, “food systems face immense challenges,” e.g., malnutrition is widespread, many food-related jobs offer low wages and poor work conditions, and “the environmental burden of food production threatens planetary health…a realignment of food systems is urgently needed.”
Sustainable Food Systems as a Driver for Implementation of the SDGs: Taking Stock of SDG2 and Future Perspectives
European Economic and Social Committee
12 Dec 2024, 71p. SDG2 aims for zero hunger, food security, and sustainability, and underpins other SDGs, e.g., health, climate action, and biodiversity. Many studies find that SDG2 is particularly off-track in Europe and globally, and many targets won’t be attained by 2030. Survey data from 40+ experts ranks most pressing challenges (lack of financial incentives for healthy food, lack of education on diets, marketing of unhealthy food, etc.), promising policy instruments (Farm to Fork strategy, action plan for organic production, biodiversity strategy, circular economy action plan, etc.), and most important priorities (financing for farmers to support the transition, an integrated EU strategic vision for sustainable food, stronger political awareness and leadership, stronger incentives for large agri-food companies, raising public awareness, stronger mechanisms for stakeholder engagement, etc.
*Recipe for a Livable Planet: Achieving Net Zero Emissions in the Agrifood System
World Bank Group
May 2024, 320p. Agrifood generates a third of GHG emissions; it proposes “transforming the agrifood system from an adversary to an ally in the fight against climate change.” Payoffs are much bigger than the costs, some of which can be paid by reducing wasteful subsidies.
The State of Food and Agriculture 2024: Value-Driven Transformation of Agrifood Systems
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
13 Nov 2024, 177p. Global agrifood systems, which employ 1.23 billion people, are deeply interconnected. Still, not all actors share equally the burden of hidden costs and the needed transformation, which requires collaboration between producers, consumers, finance, and policymakers. Transformation of agrifood “is fundamental to achieving the SDGs and securing a prosperous future for all.” Chapters discuss true cost accounting to help unpack the complexity of agrifood systems, global hidden costs of >$10 trillion in 2020, hidden costs at the national level (e.g., dietary risks causing non-communicable diseases), scenarios for desired outcomes, incentivizing change in food supply chains, an equitable role for producers in agrifood transformation, the strategic role of financial institutions, factors shaping consumer food demand, and challenges to setting policy and investment priorities.
The State of Food and Agriculture 2023: Revealing the True Cost of Food to Transform Agrifood Systems
Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
Nov 2023, 150p. FAO seeks “to transform agrifood systems for better production, better nutrition, a better environment, and a better life for all, leaving no one behind.” Impacts within these systems must be transparent. Thus, two consecutive issues of FAO’s flagship report (2023 and 2024) are devoted to uncovering the true impacts, both positive and negative, for informed decision-making. The dominant hidden costs arise from “dietary patterns which lead to diseases and lower labor productivity.” Environmental hidden costs associated with greenhouse gas and nitrogen emissions amount to more than 20%. Hidden costs are estimated to average 27% of GDP in low-income countries, 11% in middle-income countries, and 8% in high-income countries. The four chapters are devoted to factoring costs and benefits into decisions, different costs in different countries, moving to targeted true cost assessments, and true cost accounting supporting transformation.
Farming for the Future: Understanding Factors Enabling Adoption of Diversified Farming Systems
Andrea Sanchez Bogado and 5 Others, Global Food Security, #43
Dec 2024, 13p. “Diversified farming practices offer a promising pathway to sustainable food production by providing economic, environmental, and social benefits to farmers and society.” This study analyzes 154 studies of 71 factors in 9 key categories, covering 41 countries, e.g., farm management, farmer attitudes, political context, financial risk, etc. Findings show the need for holistic initiatives and policies.
“Defining and Measuring Policy Coherence for Food System Transformation: A Scoping Review,”
Deviana Dewi and 6 Others, Global Food Security, #43
Dec 2024, 8p. Changes in food systems across multiple sectors are essential for meeting many of the SDGs, and “policy coherence is essential for food systems transformation.” This review of 47 studies shows common features of policy coherence, such as minimizing tradeoffs and maximizing synergies, policy integration across various government sectors, and consistency of actions across food system sectors.
The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World: Repurposing Food and Agricultural Policies to Make Healthy Diets More Affordable
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFR, and WHO
July 2022, 232p. Over 3 billion people worldwide can’t afford a healthy diet due to rising food prices. Government food support ($630 billion/year) often distorts markets and harms small producers. Explains how governments can invest more equitably and sustainably for healthier diets.
*Global Drought Snapshot 2023: The Need for Proactive Action
International Drought Resilience Alliance, UN Convention to Combat Desertification, and United for Land
Dec 2023, 40p. An “escalating crisis” of widespread drought impacts, affecting 1.84 billion people globally, with 4.7% in severe or extreme conditions. Drought-induced forced migration and famine especially affect vulnerable groups.
Global Land Outlook: Land Restoration for Recovery and Resilience
UN Convention to Combat Desertification
May 2022, 176p. On transforming food systems, boosting climate action, place-based restoration, drought risk reduction, protected areas, global scenarios, etc.
Economics of Drought: Investing in Nature-Based Solutions for Drought Resilience—Proaction Pays.
UNCCD, Economics of Land Degradation Initiative, and IDR Alliance
3 Dec 2024, 84p. “Drought is one of the costliest and most pressing threats to societies and economies, affecting every continent.” Use of nature-based solutions (NbS) to address drought, climate change, and biodiversity loss is gaining traction. “A nature-positive economy could generate up to US$10 trillion annually in business value and create up to 395 million jobs by 2030. The area of opportunity for NbS to address drought risks is estimated at > 2.5 billion ha globally, equivalent to the land size of the US, China, and Brazil. Chapters discuss “transformational pathways” for proactive management (financing options, investment opportunities, etc.), cost-benefit analysis, and the “triple dividend” of reduced loss and damage, increased income of land users, and co-benefits for climate, nature, and sustainability.
Climate Change Threatens Crop Diversity at Low Latitudes
Sara Heikonen and 5 Others, Nature Food
4 March 2025, 14p. Climate change alters the suitability of croplands, shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food production. Geographical shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops are projected under 1.5-4 °C global warming. Adverse changes are concentrated in the tropics and sub-tropics, notably in the Middle East and North Africa. In low-latitude regions, 10-31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche under 2 °C warming, and 20-48% under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, food crop diversity would decline by 52% and 56% of cropland, respectively. However, diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes.
The Invisible Flood: The Chemistry, Ecology, and Social Implications of Coastal Saltwater Intrusion
BioScience 69:5
May 2019, 368-378. “Saltwater intrusion is the leading edge of sea level rise, preceding tidal inundation.” It has cascading consequences, such as the conversion of freshwater wetlands and declines in agricultural productivity. ALSO SEE” Saltwater Intrusion: a Growing Threat to Coastal Agriculture” (US Dept of Agriculture, Northeast Climate Hub, n.d., 2p Factsheet) on farmland lost across much of the Northeast seaboard that is too wet and salty to grow crops, and short-term strategies to lessen effects.
*2024 Global Report on Food Crises: Joint Analysis for Better Decisions
Global Network Against Food Crises and Food Security Information Network
May 2024, 198p. In 2023, 281 million people in 29 countries faced acute food insecurity, with a bleak outlook for 2024, esp. in Gaza, Sudan, and Haiti. Conflict was the primary driver in 20 countries, weather in 18 countries, and economic shocks in 21 countries.
The Montpellier Statement. Feed, Care, Protect: Intelligence to Accelerate Food Systems Transformation at Local and Global Levels
Patrick Caron (VP, Univ. of Montpellier) and 15 Others.
4 January 2023, 5p. The High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the UN Committee on World Food Security and CGIAR met at the University in March 2022. Their “simple observation: despite the global scientific and political consensus on the need for radical transformations in our food systems to better match global health, environmental and socio-economic challenges…(and) despite growing existential threats…placed on food security…and considerable evidence on what to do and how to do it…transformation is still not happening with the necessary speed, scale, or impact.” To unlock needed transformations, science and action must better inform and interact with each other and “we need to create the conditions for continuous and interactive dialogue, across sectors and scales…to work together to develop common understandings, concepts, languages…and learn how to adopt a holistic and transdisciplinary perspective, breaking silos and bridging experiences from many countries.
Why Did Musk Go After Gene Banks?
Iago Hale and Michael Kanter, New York Times (Op-Ed), 28
March 2025, A25. Two plant geneticists warn against mindless downsizing by the Department of Government Efficiency, describing the importance of the US Dept of Agriculture’s National Plant Germplasm System begun in 1898, which maintains >600,000 genetic lines of >300 crop species that undergird our food system: “a towering achievement of foresight that food security depends on.” The future will surely bring new crop diseases and pests, as well as greater environmental stresses from heat and drought. Thus, it is wise to maintain as much genetic diversity as possible. Disruptions underway, however, “threaten irreversible losses of crop genetic diversity,” which undermines the US ability to ensure continued food security and dietary diversity, e.g., NPGS genes “now protect wheat varieties around the world.”
Food Planet Health: Healthy Diets From Sustainable Food Systems
The EAT-Lancet Commission
June 2022, 30p. An adapted summary of the “Food in the Anthropocene” report calls for “radical transformation of the global food system” to meet the SDGs. A diet rich in plant-based foods with fewer animal sources leads to better health and environmental benefits.
Think Eat Save: Tracking Progress to Halve Global Food Waste
UN Environment Programme
March 2024, 191p. Food waste generates 8-10% of global GHGs, and takes up the equivalent of nearly 30% of world agricultural land. Yet, more than 780 million people are affected by hunger each year. 93 countries now have some estimate of food waste, up from 52 countries in the 2021 Food Waste Report.
Beyond Food Loss and Waste Reduction Targets: Translating Reduction Ambitions into Policy Outcomes
OECD Publishing, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Paper No. 214
Jan 2025, 60p. Reducing FLW is critical to solving the triple challenge of feeding a growing world population*, ensuring livelihoods of households along the agri-food supply chain, and delivering on sustainability commitments. Tracking progress on SDG target 12.3 of halving global food waste is “hampered by Inconsistent definitions and metrics across countries and differing national policy approaches to FLW reduction.” Targets are often unclear, and national commitments are fragmented. This report reviews data from 42 national ministries and the EC. [*ALSO SEE: World Population Prospects 2022 (UN Dept of Econ and Social Affairs, July 2022, 40p; EXTRA Directory p.15), projecting population growth to 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050, peaking at 10.4 billion in the 2080s.]
Current Status and Future Challenges in Implementing and Upscaling Vertical Farming Systems
S.H. van Deldin and 19 Others, Nature Food
6 Dec 2021. Vertical farming decreases land and water use, with potential zero pesticides and fertilizers, enabling urban consumption of fresh fruits, vegetables, and herbs. Columbia University professor Dickson Despommier first proposed the idea in The Vertical Farm: Feeding the World in the 21st Century (2010; with updated 10th Anniversary edition, Picador, 2020, 368p. Also by Despommier see The New City: How to Build our Sustainable Urban Future (Columbia Univ Press, 2023, 216p), based on vertical farms, and Ultimate Vertical Farming Guide 2025: Step-by-Step Guide for Beginners by Nouha Allaoui (Eco Engineering Hub, 25 Nov 2024), on how to grow “ten times more food on half the space” year-round, in stacked layers.
Small Farmers for Global Food Security: The Demise and Reinvention of Moral Ecologies in Indonesia
Thomas Reuter and Graeme MacRae. Cambridge Scholars Publishing
April 2024, 383p, L78. Two anthropologists document the loss of traditional food systems in Indonesia and India, but also a recent revival and reinvention of sustainable food production and community-based distribution systems, based on “moral ecology” that serves the common good. Small farmers already feed two-thirds of humanity with only a third of agricultural land; with proper support they could end world hunger.
*Navigating New Horizons: Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing
UN Environment Programme
July 2024, 108p. “Welcome to the polycrisis…the new global context.” Describes 18 signals of change, including new microbes in the thawing Arctic, new zoonotic diseases, harmful chemicals and materials, AI weapons systems, uninhabitable space, an uninsurable future, eco-anxiety, carbon offset corruption, surging fossil fuel subsidies, etc. Managing change requires a new mindset of continuous learning, a new social contract, agile and adaptive governance, a stronger voice for young people, and making information and knowledge accessible.
Annual Report 2024
SDG Academy
Aug 2024, 38p. The Academy, begun in 2014, is the educational arm of the UN’s Sustainable Development Solutions Network (Jeffrey D. Sachs, President). It offers several dozen online courses, e.g.: Env. Security and Sustaining Peace, Resilience Thinking, Mining and Materials for Sustainability Transformation, and Decent Work and Economic Growth. The most popular course: Nature-based Solutions for Disaster and Climate Resilience.
SDSN Networks in Action 2024
Sustainable Development Solutions Network
Sept 2024, 118p. SDSN is “doubling down on its efforts to accelerate progress towards the SDGs, with its global network of almost 2000 member organizations from 148 countries, as well as 57 national and regional networks.” SDSN is committed to mobilizing the knowledge community for action, with “free online education, translating scientific evidence into solutions, and catalyzing evidence-based policy action.” Describes the annual Network Managers Workshop and the University Presidents Meetings to accelerate education for the SDGs in universities.
The Contribution of Libraries to Education for Sustainable Development
SDSN, International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions, and Stichting IFLA Global Libraries
June 2024, 127p. The pervasive, multi-layered, and multifaceted contribution of libraries to ESD is unique but unreported. Involvement of libraries in formal and informal teaching is extensive and rapidly growing. Library activities relevant to the ESD 2030 Framework’s Five Priority Action Areas are mapped. Libraries should be galvanized and supported to work with other stakeholders to develop a publicly owned, “high-quality, standardized, interoperable global knowledge commons.” Also see Education for Sustainable Development: A Roadmap (UNESCO, 2020, 66p).
Education for Sustainability and the SDGs: A Short Guide to Advocating Organizations
Marta Neskovic and Lorenzo Rodriguez. Security & Sustainability Guide
Aug 2022. Abstracts of 11 relevant reports and 50 organizations, including Association for Advancement of Sustainability in Higher Education, Association of University Leaders for a Sustainable Future, World University Consortium, and UNESCO Associated Schools.
Higher Education for Sustainability and Peace: A QuickLook at PhD Programs
Marta Neskovic. Security & Sustainability Guide
April 2022. Describes 53 PhD programs in 40 institutions, including Lund Univ, Maastrict Univ, Columbia Univ, Univ of Michigan, Arizona State Univ, and Univ of British Columbia.
Nuclear Weapons/Disasters | Biological Warfare | Non-Nuclear Wars | AI-Enabled Warfare | Artificial General Intelligence/Superintelligence | Terrorism | Organized Crime | Wild Cards | Peace Agendas
*Turning Down the Heat: Addressing the Growing Salience of Nuclear Weapons.
European Leadership Network
April 2025, 16p. The five nuclear weapons states (NWS) under the Non-Proliferation Treaty are increasing the role and significance of these weapons in their military and security policies “by lowering the threshold for nuclear use in military doctrines, increasing nuclear buildups, modernizing and upgrading arsenals, and mission creep.” This risk is making the global security landscape increasingly fragile, “turning up the thermostat in an already overheated room.” Increased nuclear salience could push global security toward a boiling point, where miscalculation becomes more likely. The key to preventing escalation and bringing disarmament efforts back on track is to turn the thermostat down by reducing the role of nuclear weapons in security policies.
Thinking Through Protracted War with China: Nine Scenarios
RAND Research Report
Feb 2025, 66p. “Any war with China would be economically and strategically costly, as well as fraught with the risk of escalation to nuclear war.” The 9 scenarios cover a Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan (#6) and a Chinese air and maritime blockade of Taiwan (#7) but also possible wars in Central Asia, in Africa, in outer space (after a collision of satellites), the former Russian Federation territory, the Indian Ocean, a proxy war in Southeast Asia, and a fight for access to and control of global digital infrastructure. The analysis underscores challenges US defense planners face in envisioning and preparing for extended conflicts. Calls for expanded planning approaches, offering a framework to help policymakers “imagine the unimaginable” and improve deterrence and readiness for long-duration wars.
*SIPRI Yearbook 2024: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security,
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
June 2024, 28p Summary. “Global security continued to deteriorate through 2023, as it has for the past decade.” The entire nuclear arms control enterprise is “at risk of terminating” due to intensifying great power confrontation.
The Future for UK Defence, Diplomacy, and Disarmament
Nuclear Education Trust
May 2024, 60p. Climate change and nuclear war are “twin existential threats,” but there is very little debate about the latter. A survey of 43 opinion leaders results in 50 proposals for a more peaceful world.
*Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community
Office of the US Director of National Intelligence
5 Feb 2024, 40p. Highlights “an increasingly fragile global order” due to major power competition and various challenges. It assesses immediate and long-term threats to the US and global security, covering key state actors and transnational issues like disruptive technology, expansion of nuclear stockpiles, increased migration, terrorism, organized crime, and environmental change. Emphasizes the importance of collaborative global solutions for shared challenges.
International Security in 2045: Exploring Futures for Peace, Security and Disarmament
Sarah Grand-Clement and 15 Others. UN Institute of Disarmament Research
Dec 2023, 64p. Presents five scenarios for international security in 2045, from a peaceful “Modern Utopia” to a turbulent “Paradise Lost.” It examines global relations, democracy, environmental conditions, and conflict, and offers >60 proposals across 18 areas to tackle global security issues, including UN reform, disarmament, and human security.
*Crowdstrike 2025 Global Threat Report
Crowdstrike
April 2025, 53p. “Cyberattacks are escalating in speed, volume, and sophistication.” Identifies a shift in 2024 toward streamlined, scalable attacks driven by a business-like approach. “Don’t underestimate today’s enterprising adversaries,” with a “force multiplier” impact of off-the-shelf chatbots making genAI “a popular addition to the global hacker toolbox.” In 2024, China-nexus activity surged 150% across all sectors, voice-phishing (vishing) attacks skyrocketed, average e-crime breakout time averaged 48 minutes, most detections were malware-free, access broker ads increased, and 26 new adversaries tracked by Crowdstrike raised the total to 257. North America had 53% of interactive intrusions, followed by 14% in Russia, 11% in Europe, and 7% in India. Emphasizes the need for proactive defense strategies and adaptive cyber resilience as threat actors grow more agile and commercially motivated.
Lose-Lose? Munich Security Report 2024
Munich Security Conference
Feb 2024. “A vicious cycle of relative gains thinking, prosperity losses, and growing geopolitical tensions threatens to unroll.” Resulting lose-lose dynamics are now unfolding in many policy fields and in Eastern Europe, the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and the Sahel region. Rather than reforming the international rules-based international order and its mutual benefits, “we are “moving in the opposite direction.”
Global Risks and Challenges: A QuickLook at Security Organizations
Lorenzo Rodriguez. Security & Sustainability Guide
Jan 2022. Abstracts of 17 organizations, including Future Earth, Global Challenges Foundation, and Future World Foundation.
State of Global Environmental Governance 2023
IISD Earth Negotiations Bulletin
March 2024, 38p. Environmental degradation, including biodiversity loss and climate tipping points, has accelerated. However, positive developments include renewable energy’s potential to overtake coal in electricity generation by 2024, reduced persistent organic pollutants, and progress in chemical management and biodiversity protection
Breaking the Gridlock: Reimagining Cooperation in a Polarized World. Human Development Report 2023-2024
UN Development Programme
March 2024, 324p. Addresses global challenges amid polarization, highlighting planetary changes and the digital revolution as key future shapers. Proposes strategies for common ground, human security, and global public goods to foster cooperation.
Global Governance Innovation Report: Advancing Human Security through a New Global Economic Governance Architecture
Stimson Center
June 2024, 98p. Human security “is under siege from multiple directions.” Against this background, GGIR’24 covers G20 economic coordination, development financing, and new frontiers in governing global trade, including AI, sustainability, and futures-thinking.
Governing Our Planetary Emergency
Climate Governance Commission
Nov 2023, 120p. The Commission was established in 2020 by the Global Challenges Foundation, and co-chaired by Mary Robinson, Maria Fernanda Espinosa, and Johan Rockstrom. It warns that “The world faces a deepening planetary emergency, and is on a reckless path toward catastrophic climate change, having already overstepped 6 of 9 Planetary Boundaries. Collectively, we must chart a safe and sustainable path for a workable future for all of humanity.”
Our World at Risk: Transforming Governance for a Resilient Future
UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
April 2022, 256p; 32p summary. Warns of rising disasters, economic losses, poverty, inequality, and ecosystems at risk, with increasing vulnerability from global interconnectedness. Stresses that achieving the SDGs requires urgent action to build resilience against systemic risks.
MEGA: Mobilizing an Earth Governance Alliance
World Federalist Movement and Climate Governance Commission
MEGA is a coalition of 29 “Co-sponsoring Organizations,” supporting the Commission proposal that the UN General Assembly declare a “global planetary emergency” at the 2024 Summit of the Future.
How Governments Can Better Govern Global Catastrophic Risk
Global Shield
Aug 2024, 16p. Examines Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR), which has the potential to inflict significant harm, including the threat of extinction or permanent societal collapse. It proposes 11 policy actions, such as prioritizing GCR in governance, establishing a national risk strategy, and appointing a National Chief Risk Officer to oversee risk management.
Complex Global Shocks, Emergency Platforms, and UN Reform
Stimson Center
Sept 2024, 24p. Calls a UN Emergency Platform to better respond to life-threatening emergencies, outlining mechanisms and challenges related to its implementation.
A Breakthrough for People and Planet: Effective and Inclusive Global Governance for Today and the Future
UN University, High-Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism
April 2023, 81p. The HLAB warns of a collective breakdown due to unaddressed global crises. It outlines 10 principles for effective multilateralism and proposes six transformative shifts to tackle current challenges. These shifts focus on rebuilding trust, environmental balance, sustainable finance, digital transition, collective security, and strengthened governance for emerging risks.
Interim People’s Pact for the Future: 2023 Civil Society Perspectives on the Summit of the Future
Global Futures Forum, Coalition for the UN We Need
May 2023, 24p. A draft based on extensive consultations with civil society leaders and a Global Futures Forum. Seven thematic areas: Development and SDGs, Environmental Governance, Human Rights, Global Digital Compact, Global Economic Architecture, Peace and Security, and Global Governance Innovation. Five overarching objectives: future orientation, institution reform, whole-of-society approach, commitment fulfillment, and trust-building.
Freedom in the World 2024
Freedom House
Feb 2024, 39p. The annual survey of political rights and civil liberties finds “Global freedom declined for the 18th consecutive year in 2023; the breadth and depth of the deterioration were extensive.”
Freedom in the World 2022: The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule
Freedom House
Feb 2022, 34p. Global freedom faces severe threats as opponents of liberal democracy intensify attacks worldwide. A 16-year decline in freedom has led to a crisis, with 60 countries experiencing declines in the past year, while only 25% improved. As of 2021, only 20% of the global population lived in Free countries, down from 46% in 2005.
21st Century Economics | 21st Century Infrastructure | Circular Economy | New Finance | Democratic Governance | Artificial Intelligence Guardrails | Other New Technology | Methods and Planning
The Nature of Our Economy: Implementing the Dasgupta Review
Green Alliance (UK)
March 2025, 48p. Explores how to embed natural capital into economic decision-making, building on the UK’s high-level Dasgupta Review (2021) on the economics of biodiversity. “There can be no sustainable development—and no economic growth—without a thriving natural environment.” Economic models that protect biodiversity and human well-being within planetary boundaries are necessary. Outlines strategies for systemic transformation and cross-sectoral integration to align economic activity with long-term environmental sustainability. “A serious rethink of our economic system is no longer optional, but essential.“
Investing in Climate for Growth and Development: The Case for Enhanced NDCs
OECD and UN Development Programme
April 2025, 4p. Summary of May report. Climate action has gained momentum over the past decade, with the rapid expansion of clean energy markets, fueled by policy and market demand. But “current efforts are not keeping pace with rising risks…(and) climate action is losing momentum. New and more ambitious climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, were due in Feb 2025, but only 19 countries submitted updates by then. New OECD-UNDP analysis shows that “higher climate ambition is not only achievable, it also makes economic sense, even in the near term.” Well-designed climate policies can deliver stronger economic growth, and “a low-carbon economy is a more efficient economy.” The economic case for climate ambition is even stronger in the long term when factoring in avoided climate damages. Reducing the risk of climate-induced events could increase global GDP by up to 3% by 2050 and 13% by 2100. Stronger climate policies can also deliver health benefits from better air quality.
How Can We Construct an Economics Consistent with the Biophysical Limits to Economic Growth?
World Economics Association, Real-World Economics Review 106, Special Issue
Dec 2023, 196p. A Special Issue on developing economies aligned with biophysical limits, with 23 essays on ecological economics, aligning economic principles with natural laws, rethinking economic foundations, etc.
The Economics of Water: Valuing the Hydrological Cycle as a Global Common Good
Global Commission on the Economics of Water
Oct 2024, 30p Executive Summary. Calls for “radical changes in how water is valued, managed, and used” and for economies to allocate and properly use both “blue water” (in rivers, lakes, and aquifers) and “green water” stored as soil moisture and in vegetation. Builds on the Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity.
*The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the 21st Century’s Greatest Dilemma
Mustafa Suleyman (Palo Alto; Co-Founder of DeepMind and Inflection AI)
Crown, 2023, 332p. The coming wave is “an emerging cluster of related technologies centered on AI and synthetic biology… (that) will empower humankind and present unprecedented risks.” It is going to change the world. Containment is the ability to monitor, curtail, control, and even close down technologies. But technology is predisposed to diffuse widely in waves, with impacts that are impossible to predict or control. The dilemma is “the growing likelihood” that new technologies “might lead to catastrophic and/or dystopian outcomes.” Unfortunately, people—especially in technology circles— “ignore, downplay, or reject narratives they see as overly negative.” This “pessimism aversion” colors much of the AI debate. “States are already facing massive strain, and the coming wave looks set to make things much more complicated.” Our “most urgent task is not to ride or vainly stop the wave but to sculpt it.”
Utilizing Basic Income to Create a Sustainable, Poverty-Free Tomorrow
Cell Reports Sustainability, L. Rashid Sumaila (UBC, Vancouver) and 13 Others
28 June 2024, 13p. On the feasibility and potential impacts of Basic Income for all for environmental sustainability and decreasing poverty.
Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2024
UN Inter-Agency Task Force on Financing for Development
March 2024, 231p. Many countries are now faced with high risks of debt distress, due to the past four years of global turmoil. Financing gaps now stand at US$4 trillion/year. Proposes an SDG stimulus of $500 billion/year of additional investments, and steps to take.
Capital as a Force for Good: Shifting the Global Order Through the Mass Mobilization of Solutions
Force for Good Initiative
Sept 2024, 125p. Progress toward achieving the SDGs by 2030 is stagnating, due to economic shocks, conflicts, and environmental degradation; only 16% of the 169 SDG targets are on track, 50% are off-track, and 30% have regressed below 2015 levels. The cost of achieving the SDGs is rising (the annual funding gap is $14-17 trillion), and without this funding, long-term costs will rise, further hindering human and planetary security. Global wealth is at a record $653 trillion (81% owned by households), but unlocking this wealth requires financial innovation, such as blended finance and public-private partnerships, and integrated disaster risk management.
State of Finance for Nature: The Big Nature Turnaround Repurposing $7 Trillion to Combat Nature Loss
UN Environment Programme, Global Canopy, and The Economics of Land Degradation
Dec 2023, 74p. Reveals a stark financial imbalance: $7 trillion annually goes to nature-negative activities, while only $200 billion supports nature-based solutions. This disparity worsens climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. A major shift in funding is needed.
The Climate Trillions We Need: Proposals for a New Global Financial Architecture to End Poverty and Save the Planet
Sustainable Finance Lab (Utrecht)
Nov 2023, 40p. Limiting climate change requires annual investments in developing countries to grow by $4.5 trillion by 2030. This means a debt pause, global taxes, and rechanneling Special Drawing Rights.
Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2024
UN Inter-Agency Task Force on Financing for Development
March 2024, 231p. Many countries are now faced with high risks of debt distress, due to the past four years of global turmoil. Financing gaps now stand at US$4 trillion/year. Proposes an SDG stimulus of $500 billion/year of additional investments, and steps to take.
Capital as a Force for Good: Shifting the Global Order Through the Mass Mobilization of Solutions
Force for Good Initiative
Sept 2024, 125p. Progress toward achieving the SDGs by 2030 is stagnating, due to economic shocks, conflicts, and environmental degradation; only 16% of the 169 SDG targets are on track, 50% are off-track, and 30% have regressed below 2015 levels. The cost of achieving the SDGs is rising (the annual funding gap is $14-17 trillion), and without this funding, long-term costs will rise, further hindering human and planetary security. Global wealth is at a record $653 trillion (81% owned by households), but unlocking this wealth requires financial innovation, such as blended finance and public-private partnerships, and integrated disaster risk management.
State of Finance for Nature: The Big Nature Turnaround Repurposing $7 Trillion to Combat Nature Loss
UN Environment Programme, Global Canopy, and The Economics of Land Degradation
Dec 2023, 74p. Reveals a stark financial imbalance: $7 trillion annually goes to nature-negative activities, while only $200 billion supports nature-based solutions. This disparity worsens climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. A major shift in funding is needed.
State of Global Environmental Governance 2024
International Institute for Sustainable Development, Earth Negotiations Bulletin
March 2025, 38p. Assesses institutional effectiveness in addressing global environmental challenges and identifies key gaps in coordination, accountability, and implementation. Notes “an upsurge in ‘greenlash’ movements in 2024, largely as various crises collided. Efforts to protect nature or reduce emissions ran against the cost-of-living crisis fueled by global wars, among other challenges.” Recommends strengthening multilateral cooperation, improving governance frameworks, and fostering policy coherence to support planetary sustainability
Superintelligence Strategy: Expert Vision
Dan Hendrycks (Director, Center for AI Safety), Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO), and Alexandr Wang (CEO, Scale AI). Center for AI Safety
March 2025, 40p. ’Superintelligent’ AI surpassing humans…would be the most precarious tech development since the nuclear bomb…inescapably a matter of national security.” Strategies are explored for development and governance of superintelligent AI, as regards: 1) Deterrence: “a race for AI dominance endangers all states and can jeopardize the security of all; 2) Nonproliferation: states must prioritize information security to limit AI capabilities of terrorists and rogue actors; 3) Competitiveness: AI-enabled weapons are increasing essential for military strength, but robust legal frameworks are needed for governing AI. Also addresses opportunities for breakthroughs in sustainability, health, and security, as well as substantial risks including autonomy, ethical dilemmas, and social disruption. Advocates of inclusive and transparent multi-stakeholder engagement, precautionary regulatory frameworks, and alignment with human values to guide safe advancement. This will require “an unprecedented confluence of science, ethics, and policy.”
*Being Human in 2035: How Are We Changing in the Age of AI?
Imagining the Digital Future Center (Elon Univ, Elon NC)
April 2025, 286p. A survey of 301 experts asked to predict AI impact by 2035 on 12 essential human traits and capabilities. Change is likely to be mostly positive in curiosity and capacity to learn, decision-making and problem-solving, and innovative thinking. Change is likely to be mostly negative in social and emotional intelligence, capacity to think deeply, trust in widely shared values and norms, mental well-being, sense of identity and purpose, etc. Dramatic and fundamental change in human capacities as advanced AI is broadly adapted was expected by 23% of the experts; considerable change by 38%, moderate but noticeable change by 31%, minor and barely perceptible change by 5%, and no noticeable change by 3%. Overall, 16% see AI as mainly for the better for most people worldwide, 50% see fairly equal changes for better and for worse, 23% see changes mostly for the worse for most people, 6% see little or no change overall, and 5% don’t know.
Empire of AI: Dreams and Nightmares in Sam Altman’s Open AI
Karen Hao (former Wall Street Journal writer). Penguin
May 2025, 496p, $32. (Pub in UK by Allen Lane, as “Empire of AI: Inside the Reckless Race for Total Domination.”). An AI expert and investigative journalist describes a new and ominous age of empire, where a small handful of globally scaled companies are in the field, headed by ChatGPT and OpenAI. The vision of success for this massively disruptive sector requires a huge number of resources to create massive large-language models, “arguably the most fateful tech arms race in history.”
*Governing AI for Humanity
UN High-Level Advisory Body on AI
7 July 2024, 95p. AI governance is “crucial” to address challenges and risks, and ensure its “tremendous potential” is realized. Despite much discussion, “the patchwork of norms and institutions is still nascent and full of gaps.” On common ground and benefits, coordination and implementation gaps, a UN AI Office, etc.
*Framework Convention on Global AI Challenges: Accelerating International Cooperation to Ensure Beneficial, Safe and Inclusive AI
Centre for International Governance Innovation
June 2024(?), 34p. CIGI’s Global AI Risks Initiative is concerned with the loss of control of advanced AI systems and AI weaponization (misuse of AI systems to cause harm). A Framework Convention should codify the most important shared objectives for AI cooperation in addressing the most urgent issues posed by “accelerating the development of AI.”
Artificial Intelligence Governance to Reinforce the 2030 Agenda
UN Economic and Social Council
29 Jan 2024, 16p. On the AI’s potential to boost progress in poverty reduction, education, etc., and risks such as job loss and data bias. Stresses the urgent need for governance, as AI rapidly advances to AGI and poses potential existential risks.
*Requirements for Global Governance of Artificial General Intelligence: Phase 2 of a Real-Time Delphi
The Millennium Project (Jerome Glenn, CEO)
April 2024, 46p. AGI is an advanced AI capable of autonomous learning across domains. Most experts project AGI emergence within 3-5 years, followed by Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). Many of the 229 respondents warn of existential risks from unregulated AGI.
Managing Extreme AI Risks Amid Rapid Progress
Science, Yoshua Bengio, G. Hinton, and 23 Others
20 May 2024, 5p. AI is progressing rapidly, as companies shift focus to generalist AI systems that act autonomously, but with risks including large-scale social harms, malicious uses, and loss of human control. “AI safety research is lagging.” Governance measures must prepare us for sudden AI breakthroughs with an automatic trigger when AI hits certain milestones.
The AI Risk Repository: A Comprehensive Meta-Review, Database, and Taxonomy of Risks
MIT Future Tech
Aug 2024, 79p. Classifies 777 risks into 7 AI risk domains and 23 sub-domains.
The Digitalist Papers: Artificial Intelligence and Democracy in America
Stanford Digital Economy Lab
24 Sept 2024, 240p. $36.72; $28.97pb from Amazon. Just as the Federalist Papers of the 18th century analyzed the great challenges of the day, these 12 essays by 19 “thought leaders” consider new challenges to democracy and participatory practices, AI’s potential to transform government operations and public service, the complex challenges of AI regulation, and the need for participatory frameworks and ethical considerations.
AI Landscapes: Exploring Future Scenarios of AI to 2030
Rachel Adams and 20 Others. Economist Impact
Feb 2024, 29p. Four AI development scenarios, ranging from global cooperation to fragmented policies.
The AI Revolution: What the New Age of Artificial Intelligence Means for Humanity.
NewScientist Essential Guide No. 23
July 2024, $15. Why has AI suddenly leapt forward? Describes how the technology works, its capabilities, and “future horizons from utopia to annihilation.”
The Age of AI: And Our Human Future
Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO & Chair), and Daniel Huttenlocher. Little, Brown
Oct 2021. $30. Discusses the emerging human-machine partnership, the evolution of AI, the dream of AGI, global network platforms and disinformation, security and world order, conflict in the digital age, AI and the international order, managing AI, human identity and AI, and the essential need for an AI ethic.
Technology as a Force for Good: Technology Driving the Transition to a Superior Future
Force for Good
Jan 2024, 122p. Warns of the polycrisis, “a cascade of successive global disruptions diverting leaders’ attention and resources away from longer-term systemic priorities.” Shows that 19 core technologies, now existing, can enable necessary transitions and advance the SDGs.
