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Existential Threats and Risks to All

OUR PARTNERS

The EXTRA Working Group is engaging globally with numerous organisations and agencies (see our list of Existential Risk networks) to help us develop the InfoHub, and simultaneously to amplify their work and promote their events. Collaborative activities with partners include webinars, interviews, invited op-eds, foresight exercises, and, in the future, training programs. These strategies aim to strengthen global cooperation and ultimately global governance for understanding and managing existential threats and risks. 

Partnerships Liaison Contact: extra@worldacademy.org

EXISTENTIAL RISK NETWORKS

Organizations Focusing on Existential Threats and Risks

The listing below identifies organizations that focus on general threats or risks, as well as selected organizations focusing on individual threats (climate, biodiversity, nuclear weapons, health, and AI). Organization name, place, and date of founding are followed by one or more recent publications or meetings, and a reference number to the Report on Recent Reports series of the 2023 ER2H Bibliography for an abstract. 

NOTE: Many titles of reports and articles have been shortened to conserve space.

  1. AI Impacts (Berkeley, CA, 2019)
  2. AISIC/Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute Consortium (2023), formed by the National Institute of Standards & Technology (Gaithersburg, MD).
  3. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Society, promotes “study of AGI” for “design of AGI systems.” NOTE: No concern about negative impacts; not included, but mentioned somewhere.
  4. Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (Walnut, CA, 2017) supports collaboration as a “multiplier” to university research groups.
  5. BioScience. World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency,” (Special Report), William J. Ripple and 11 Others, 72:12 (Dec 2022) 1149-1155. The 30th anniversary of a similar warning in 1992: “We are now at ‘code red’ on planet Earth.” Signed by thousands of scientists.
  6. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Chicago), 2024 Doomsday Clock Statement: It is Still 90 Seconds to Midnight (Annual since 1947; on nuclear threat, climate, biothreats, AI). 
  7. Cascade Institute (BC, Canada), What is a Global Polycrisis,” (Sept 2022, 10p). On many crises interacting to form a conjoined polycrisis.
  8. Center for Climate and Security, World Climate and Security Report 2020 (Feb 2020, 151p). On climate as a risk multiplier, and risks in seven world regions over the next 10-20 years.
  9. Center on Long-Term Risk (London), papers on malevolent actors, AI safety, and prioritization.
  10. Centre for Human Inspired AI (CHIA), see Univ of Cambridge
  11. Centre for International Governance Innovation, Global AI Risks Initiative (Waterloo, Ont, Canada), Framework Convention on Global AI Challenges…to Ensure Beneficial, Safe and Inclusive AI (June 2024, 34p). On risks of advanced AI, such as weaponization and loss of control.
  12. Centre for Long-Term Resilience (London), papers on extreme AI risk, extreme biological risk, Future Proof: The Opportunity to Transform the UK’s Resilience to Extreme Risk (June 2021, 57p).
  13. Centre for the Governance of AI (UK, 2021). Main focus on “threats that general-purpose AI may pose to security”; we seek to understand today’s risks and “more extreme risks they could pose in the future”.
  14. Club of Rome, Earth for All: A Survival Guide (2022); Planetary Emergency Plan 2.0 (2020).
  15. Council for the Human Future, The (Australia, 2020), A World Call to Action on the Multiple Crises Now Enfolding Humanity (July 2024, 34p).  A “Roundtable on the Human Future” co-hosted by The Club of Rome, involving one-page summaries by 25 organizations, in that “Humanity faces multiple global catastrophic risks, now arriving together,” a polycrisis posing “mounting security threats” to all nations and people. Proposes a World Plan of Action” and many specific actions.
  16. Council on Strategic Risks, Converging Risks Lab, The Security Threat That Binds Us: Ecological and Natural Security (Feb 2021, 130p). On the sixth mass extinction period. 
  17. Economist Impact, Future Scenarios of AI Through 2030 (Feb 2024, 29p). Four scenarios ranging from productive AI global regulation to an AI Jungle of competing interests. 
  18. European Commission, EU Policy Lab, Risks on the Horizon: Insights from Horizon Scanning (June 2024, 110p). On ten clusters of future risks: breakdown of international cooperation, decline of the EU economy, decrease in well-being, disrupted critical supply chains, AI dominance, democracy erosion, green transition failure, lawless society, social division, and weakened EU.
  19. European Environment Agency (Copenhagen), European Climate Risk Assessment (March 2024, 340p). On climate change as a risk multiplier and 36 climate risks across Europe. 
  20. Existential Risk Observatory (Amsterdam, 2022). Newsletter “to reduce existential risk by informing public debate”; AI risks, man-made pandemics, public attitudes toward X Risk (survey in US and Netherlands, April 2024, 14p; shows rising awareness and concern).
  21. Future Earth, Risk Perceptions Report 2020 (2020, 13p). A survey of >200 global change scientists from 52 countries on global systemic risks, “the growing existential threat to humanity,” our impact increasing at an exponential rate, and seven emerging risks. 
  22. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (2011); annual reports; a dozen or so academic articles.
  23. Global Challenges Foundation (Stockholm), Global Catastrophic Risks 2024 (Jan 2024, 49p). On climate change, ecological collapse, and weapons of mass destruction. 
  24. Global Governance Forum, Global Governance and International Cooperation: Managing Global Catastrophic Risks in the 21st Century (Routledge, April 2024, 522p), The Global Catastrophic Risk Index (Feb 2022, 43p). Evaluates 85 indicators on vulnerability and resilience for 118 countries.
  25. Global Shield (San Francisco) “Dedicated to reducing catastrophic risk of all hazards”; How Governments Can Better Understand Global Catastrophic Risk (Aug 2023, 13p).
  26. Global Youth Security Council for Existential Risks (GYSC) (Jan 2024) statement to the House of Lords calling for unified global action and harnessing the vigor of youth worldwide.
  27. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES, 1998; Japan); climate change as “increasing threat at local and global levels”; seeks advanced mitigation and adaptation initiatives, green energy pathways, a resilient ecosystem, a circular economy, and an integrated approach to the triple planetary crisis.
  28. Institute for Technology and Humanity (Univ of Cambridge, 2023). Umbrella for CSER and CHIA.
  29. Institute of Risk Management (1988) publishes Enterprise Risk, a free quarterly magazine (circulation >5,500) on global risks and threats, “sleeper risks”, and resilience.
  30. InterAction Council (1983). Former national leaders on long-term global issues facing humanity. Papers on planetary health, AI governance, COVID, climate, etc.
  31. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6) (March 2023, 85p). Integrates findings of the three Working Groups, warning that “climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health” and risks escalate with every increment of global warming and increasingly create compound and cascading risks.
  32. Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES, Bonn, 2012), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (2019, 1148p; 56p Summary). Established by 94 governments as the biological analogue to the better-known IPCC, IPBES has performed 11 regional and thematic assessments, and outlines a 2030 Work Program on the impact of ecosystem services on human well-being, interlinkages in the context of climate change, causes of biodiversity loss, and options for transformative change to attain a 2050 Vision for biodiversity.
  33. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC, Lausanne, Switzerland); Guidelines for the Governance of Systemic Risk: Systems and Organizations in the Context of Transition (2018, 86p). On resilience, complexity, systems thinking, early warning, foresight, and sustainability.
  34. International Science Council, Global Science Policy Unit; co-author with UNEP of Navigating New Horizons (July 2024, 108p); see UNEP.
  35. IUCN/International Union for the Conservation of Nature (1948) >1400 governments and NGOs; publishes the official Red List of Endangered Species; Nature 2030 program on people, land, water, oceans; issue briefs on land degradation, deforestation, ocean warming, deep sea mining, etc.
  36. Journal of Risk Research, The Challenge of Global Systemic Risks,” 2019, 401-415 (Ortwin Renn and 3 Others on managing new risks that affect multiple systems). Systemic Risks—Concepts and Challenges for Risk Governance,” Journal of Risk Research, 24:1, 2019, 78-93, “systemic risks as potential threats” to the functioning of society. Project on resilience from extreme climate events.
  37. Kyoto University (Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability). To nurture next-generation leaders on the challenges of disasters, climate, food, water, AI, etc.
  38. Lancet Planetary Health; “increasingly clear that pollution is a planetary threat” (2022 update, on climate, air pollution, toxic chemicals, etc.).
  39. Lloyd’s Register Foundation/Gallup, World Risk Poll 2024 Report: Resilience in a Changing World (June 2024, 45p); 147,000 interviews in 142 countries, finding 30% of people experienced a disaster related to a natural disaster, especially flooding, in the past five years.
  40. Longterm Future Fund (Oxford, UK, c/o Giving What We Can making grants that address global catastrophic risks, esp. around AI and pandemics).
  41. Machine Intelligence Research Institute (Berkeley CA, 2005); to identify and manage potential existential risks from Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
  42. Millennium Project (Washington). Monitors 15 Global Challenges since 1996; now has 71 Nodes worldwide and three Regional Networks. Requirements for Global Governance of Artificial General Intelligence (April 2024, 46p), a real-time Delphi, warning of AGI in 3-5 years.
  43. National Academy of Sciences (US), The Planetary Commons: Safeguarding Earth-Regulating Systems,” PNAS (Jan 2024). Rockstrom et al on 6 of 9 planet boundaries now crossed. National Academy of Sciences. Climate Endgame: Exploring Catastrophic Climate Change Scenarios,” L. Kemp and 10 Others, PNAS 49:34, (2022, 9p.). Includes Fragile States Index.
  44. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Washington), Arctic Report Card 2023 (Dec 2023, 117p). 18th edition on key vital signs: extreme heat, warming ocean water, more precipitation, subsea permafrost, more marine algae, largest wildfire on record, etc. “The Arctic continues to rapidly evolve…pushing the broader Earth system into uncharted territory.”
  45. Omega (2016), Project of Commonwealth (Bolinas, CA; c/o Michael Lerner). The Long View: Life in the Global Polycrisis newsletter; supports projects of service in “chaotic times.”
  46. Oxford Open Climate Change (UK), “Global Warming in the Pipeline,” (Nov 2023). James Hansen and 17 others on warming exceeding 2.0 °C before 2050.
  47. Polycrisis.org (see Cascade Institute; project of Polycrisis Resource Library).
  48. Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS) Helmholtz Center Potsdam, Systemic Risk Group.
  49. Rhodium Group (Washington), Projections of Energy Emissions and Global Temperature Rise (Nov 2023, 29p). A temperature rise of 2.3 to 3.4 °C by 2100 is very likely.
  50. Risk Analysis, Systemic Risks from Different Perspectives,” (Dec 2020). Ortwin Renn and six others on risks of high complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity, with effects on other systems.
  51. SIPRI/Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk (May 2022, 98p); SIPRI Yearbook 2024: Arms, Disarming and Security (June 2024, 28p).
  52. Society for Risk Analysis (Herndon, VA) publishes Risk Analysis journal; regional orgs on six continents; 16 specialty groups: resilience analysis, ecology risk, microbial risk, etc. See Systemic Risks from Different Perspectives,” Ortwin Renn and 6 Others, Dec 2020.
  53. Stanford Existential Risks Initiative (Palo Alto, CA), From Global Catastrophes to Existential Risks: Intersections and Cascades, 3rd Annual X-Risks Conference (April 2023). Reports on the Stanford Cascading Risk Study, based on five 2075 scenarios.
  54. Stimson Center (Washington), Road to 2023: Our Common Agenda and the Pact for the Future (June 2022, 89p). On a new agenda for peace, global shocks and health threats, the global commons, future generations, etc.
  55. Study.com. “Top Threats to Humanity and Existential Risks” study materials for teachers and home-schoolers on climate change, energy emissions, and nuclear war.
  56. The Elders, The Elders Strategy 2023-2027 (Jan 2023, 33p). Eminent retired leaders call for “urgent action on existential threats” such as climate, nuclear weapons, pandemics, and AI.
  57. UN Dept of Economic and Social Affairs, Sustainable Development Goals Report 2022 (July 2022, 65p). On the 2030 Agenda “is in grave jeopardy due to multiple, cascading crises.
  58. UN Development Programme, Breaking the Gridlock in a Polarized World: Human Development Report 2023-2024 (March 2024, 324p). On “dangerous planetary changes” and interlinked global challenges outpacing our capacities to respond. ALSO SEE: HDR 2021-2022, Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives, (Sept 2022, 320p). Growing inequality, mental distress, and New Threats to Human Security, Special Report (Feb 2022, 175p).
  59. UN Economic and Social Council, AI Governance to Reinforce the 2030 Agenda (Jan 2024, 16p). On AI potentials for progress on five SDGs, and 10 AI risks and challenges.
  60. UN Environment Programme, Navigating New Horizons: A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Well-Being (July 2024, 108p). On the triple planetary crisis (climate, biodiversity, pollution and waste), the new global context of polycrisis, and 18 Signals of Change including ancient lethal microbes in thawing Arctic permafrost, new zoonotic diseases, antimicrobial resistance, harmful chemicals and materials, orbital space debris, AI weapons systems, uninhabitable spaces, eco-anxiety, misinformation, widening inequalities. Keeping It Chill: How to Meet Cooling Demand (Dec 2023, 121p). As the world warms, cooling demand will triple by 2050, with more than a doubling of electricity consumed.
  61. UN High-Level Advisory Body on AI, Governing AI for Humanity (July 7, 2024, 95p). On “accelerating development” of AI, opportunities and risks of AI, “negative spill-overs…likely to be global,” the “imperative of global governance,” and enhancing global cooperation.
  62. UN Institute of Disarmament Research (New York), International Security in 2045 (Dec 2023, 64p). Five scenarios range from harmonious relations to many high-intensity conflicts.
  63. UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Our World at Risk: Transforming Governance for a Resilient Future (April 2022, 256p). A biennial Global Assessment Report—GAR 2022—warns that disasters are increasing, as well as ecosystems and Biosystems at risk of collapse.
  64. UN Secretary General Report, Our Common Agenda (Sept 2021, 84p). On “an inflection point in history” where we face a choice between Breakdown and Breakthrough to a safer future.
  65. UN University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS, Bonn, 2012). Many specialized books, reports, and articles, and a general “flagship” report, Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023: Risk Tipping Points (Oct 2023, 96p; annual since 2021), examining “six immediate and increasing” worldwide risks: accelerating extinctions of species, groundwater depletion, retreat of mountain glaciers, uninhabitable heat in a growing number of places, the rise in uninsurability, and growing space debris. “We are nearing close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points…driving us towards potential catastrophe.”
  66. UNICEF Innocenti, Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis (Jan 2023, 53p). Identifies eight drivers of stress: COVID, inflation, food insecurity, fragmented internet, factionalism, etc. Nine Youth Foresight Fellows worked with this 3rd edition of UNICEF’s Global Outlook.
  67. Univ of Cambridge, Centre for Human-Inspired Artificial Intelligence (CHIA) (2022); “assessing AI for the benefit of humanity”; programs on Responsible AI, Health and Global AI, etc.
  68. Univ of Cambridge, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, The Era of Global Risk. Vol 1: Introduction to Existential Risk Studies (Open Book Publishers, Fall 2023, 306p) Chapters on X-risk history, societal collapse, natural risks, global justice, ecological breakdown, biotechnology risks, military AI, etc. Note Sept 17-18, 2024 conference on global catastrophic risk.
  69. Univ of Chicago, Existential Risk Laboratory (XLab, 2022)Analysis and mitigation of risks that threaten long-term survival, in the spirit of the University of Chicago scientists in the Manhattan Project, which founded the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1945. Course on “Are We Doomed?”
  70. Univ of Exeter, Global Systems Institute, Global Tipping Points Report 2023 (Dec 2023, 478p). T. Lenton and 18 others on 25 Earth system tipping points and when tipping is likely.
  71. Univ of Oxford, Future of Humanity Institute (Faculty of Philosophy; Toby Ord; Nick Bostrum), Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority,” Global Policy 4, 2013, 15-31.
  72. US Director of National Intelligence (Washington), Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community (Feb 2024, 40p). Non-technical unclassified overview of state actors and global issues. 
  73. World Academy of Art & Science, CADMUS Special Issue on Human Security (5:1, March 2023, 157p). As a “new paradigm” to deal with “the multidimensional crises confronting humanity today.” Also sponsors the Working Group on Existential Threats and Risks to All (EXTRA).
  74. World Economic Forum (Davos), The Global Risks Report 2024 (Jan 2024, 121p). 19th annual edition, ranking 34 global risks over the next 2 years and 10 years.
  75. World Meteorological Organization, State of the Global Climate 2023 (March 2024, 53p).
  76. World Resources Institute, Systems Change Lab, State of Climate Action 2023 (Nov 2023, 244p). On 42 indicators of progress and falling behind on the climate emergency.
  77. World Wildlife Fund, Living Planet Report: Bending the Curve of Biodiversity Loss (2020, 159p). Warns of severe declines in species despite “decades of words and warnings.
  78. UN, United Nations Secretary-General’s Call to Action on Extreme Heat (25 July 2024, 20p). “The climate crisis is driving crippling heat everywhere.” Four critical areas for action: protect vulnerable workers, care for the vulnerable, boost resilience, and limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
  79. Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft (Berlin), World Risk Report 2023 (Dec 2023, 76p). Published annually since 2011, it assesses disaster risk for 193 countries regarding flooding, drought, sea-level rise, and earthquakes, as well as coping and adaptive capacities. The top 5 countries are the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Mexico, and Colombia. Russia is #8, China is #10, Pakistan #11, and the US #20.
  80. Force for Good (New York), Technology as a Force for Good: Technology Driving the Transition to a Superior Future (Jan 2024, 122p). “A confluence of crises, often referred to as a polycrisis, poses a compounded threat that risks further dividing the world.” The polycrisis and “global systemic challenges” divert attention from global development. Describes 19 core technologies for a sustainable and secure future, including 10 tech solutions to drive the SDGs, e.g., tele-health, e-learning, nanotech for water treatment, etc.

SUBJECT INDEX

AI and AGI  1-2, 4, 7-9, 12-13, 19, 25, *26, *37

biodiversity endangered 11, *21, 40, *50

biorisk/bioweapons 4, 9, 43 

cascading risks *20, 32, 35

catastrophic risks 16-17, 32, 43

climate 6, *14, *20, 28-29, 38, 48-49

children in the polycrisis 42

cooling demand to 2050 38

GENERAL OVERVIEWS  3, *4, 10, *13, 15-18, *23, 26, 32, *45, *47

global shocks 33

human security 19, 36, *46

nuclear threat 4, 16, 34

Our Common Agenda (UN) 33, *41

peace 31, 33, 39

planetary boundaries 10, *27

polycrisis *5, 42

public health/pandemics 19, 33-34

resilience 17, 24, 40

risk poll in 142 countries 34

systemic risks 15, 22, 30

tipping points *44

youth and existential risks 18

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